{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05a2f37c-c342-435d-aacb-2a23526a4bf5", "symbol": "002677", "name": "Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.939, "architecture_energy": 23.258, "architecture_maturity": 72.229, "architecture_confidence": 85.865, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.27, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 16.84, "deceleration": 43.86, "rotation_down": 31.93, "downward_expansion": 62.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.705333, 6.644144, 6.911808, 7.266291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.77, "trend_reference": 7.811918, "distance_from_trend": -0.133375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.826462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134986, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.869502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246941, "excess_performance": -0.254341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134986, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39181436, "relative_activity": 1.159041, "balance": 0.753799, "dry_up": 1.574214, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125245, "annualized_volatility": 0.592846, "from_high_reference": -0.351533, "from_low_reference": 0.206774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.811918, "fair_value_reference": 7.826462, "structural_low": 5.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.00108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016453, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.121726, "worst_return": -0.199346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022662, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01033, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.264253, "worst_return": -0.162244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065351, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.075708, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.138462, "worst_return": -0.163644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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6.663852, 7.197987, 7.617232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.23, "volume": 69645168, "typical_volume": 31964194.0, "trend": 7.990252, "fair_value": 7.894787, "relative_strength": -15.346331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.178882, "energy": 58.510372, "activity_lines": [ 6.47269, 6.693537, 7.155761, 7.566872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.95, "volume": 6864999, "typical_volume": 29570000.15, "trend": 8.008918, "fair_value": 7.885288, "relative_strength": 2.466874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.660762, "energy": 27.029056, "activity_lines": [ 6.9856, 6.867573, 7.190487, 7.564275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 104659129, "typical_volume": 32072532.0, "trend": 7.935252, "fair_value": 7.863573, "relative_strength": -21.480253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.216505, "energy": 28.885529, "activity_lines": [ 6.798667, 6.706674, 7.055213, 7.439828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.34, "volume": 62160019, "typical_volume": 33176958.6, "trend": 7.864585, "fair_value": 7.844039, "relative_strength": -16.441634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.917587, "energy": 24.453457, "activity_lines": [ 6.704, 6.625768, 6.957844, 7.336909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.77, "volume": 39181436, "typical_volume": 33805047.4, "trend": 7.811918, "fair_value": 7.826462, "relative_strength": -14.869502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.939324, "energy": 23.258448, "activity_lines": [ 6.705333, 6.644144, 6.911808, 7.266291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }