{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05ae06a1-61a5-4b68-a406-0106c19af68e", "symbol": "600715", "name": "Cultural Investment Holdings Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.966, "architecture_energy": 56.636, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.45, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 27.65, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 60.89, "rotation_down": 49.45, "downward_expansion": 81.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.549333, 1.554182, 1.685476, 1.793312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.59, "trend_reference": 1.939667, "distance_from_trend": -0.180272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.149231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.695563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305677, "excess_performance": -0.262473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2602, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163218802, "relative_activity": 1.185944, "balance": 0.372677, "dry_up": 1.160088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081277, "annualized_volatility": 0.282774, "from_high_reference": -0.513761, "from_low_reference": 0.111888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.939667, "fair_value_reference": 2.149231, "structural_low": 1.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004348, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.002713, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.188192, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.070807, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.264368, "worst_return": -0.422727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.10898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063835, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.454936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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1.73, 1.841613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 180241498, "typical_volume": 138195478.95, "trend": 1.959333, "fair_value": 2.153526, "relative_strength": -24.78982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.691019, "energy": 62.484476, "activity_lines": [ 1.528667, 1.560182, 1.706905, 1.81714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.59, "volume": 163218802, "typical_volume": 137627713.8, "trend": 1.939667, "fair_value": 2.149231, "relative_strength": -26.695563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.96576, "energy": 56.636042, "activity_lines": [ 1.549333, 1.554182, 1.685476, 1.793312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }