{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05ae7440-7587-4ab4-adb5-cc775cd46907", "symbol": "257A", "name": "SMT ETF Selected Japan Equity Active", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.097, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.079, "architecture_energy": 19.306, "architecture_maturity": 57.97, "architecture_confidence": 76.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 23.42, "upward_expansion": 54.47, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 29.22, "downward_expansion": 18.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3377.133333, 3408.722363, 3377.385559, 3308.540225 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3379.0, "trend_reference": 3225.260791, "distance_from_trend": 0.047667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2550.046288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.241913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.14932, "excess_performance": -0.059939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00276, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 735, "relative_activity": 0.548282, "balance": 0.773953, "dry_up": 1.114095, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05151, "annualized_volatility": 0.191338, "from_high_reference": -0.461085, "from_low_reference": 0.44415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3225.260791, "fair_value_reference": 2550.046288, "structural_low": 2823.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"trend": 3159.486816, "fair_value": 2523.964401, "relative_strength": -4.999415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.324214, "energy": 34.962532, "activity_lines": [ 3425.405501, 3427.73093, 3345.678279, 3269.43631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3399.0, "volume": 2454, "typical_volume": 1383.15, "trend": 3182.675049, "fair_value": 2532.985387, "relative_strength": -2.528465, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.404278, "energy": 27.795165, "activity_lines": [ 3404.510856, 3425.952317, 3359.217213, 3284.888774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3376.0, "volume": 1552, "typical_volume": 1340.5, "trend": 3205.727458, "fair_value": 2541.587577, "relative_strength": -2.658757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.581024, "energy": 19.313626, "activity_lines": [ 3387.189762, 3417.410068, 3369.06091, 3297.361351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3379.0, "volume": 735, "typical_volume": 1340.55, "trend": 3225.260791, "fair_value": 2550.046288, "relative_strength": -4.241913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.078886, "energy": 19.305731, "activity_lines": [ 3377.133333, 3408.722363, 3377.385559, 3308.540225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }