{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05aeb60d-46c1-4214-87e9-2210c1802b93", "symbol": "WLDC", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Swap II UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.088, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.516, "architecture_energy": 69.647, "architecture_maturity": 82.08, "architecture_confidence": 72.836, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 58.33, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.37, "rotation_down": 28.6, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.8144, 18.727854, 18.445962, 18.061832 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.184, "trend_reference": 17.613733, "distance_from_trend": 0.08915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.926169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.272769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142721, "excess_performance": -0.028171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142721, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.529507, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143669, "relative_activity": 1.00236, "balance": 2.529507, "dry_up": 1.193629, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016801, "annualized_volatility": 0.106883, "from_high_reference": -0.001769, "from_low_reference": 0.240559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.613733, "fair_value_reference": 14.926169, "structural_low": 15.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.012677, "positive_rate": 0.709677, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": 0.002202, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.071828, "worst_return": -0.084716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057011, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.00882, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.101509, "worst_return": -0.148649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085202, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.013495, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.15923, "worst_return": -0.05043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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139026.05, "trend": 17.340733, "fair_value": 14.742592, "relative_strength": -3.560494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.383729, "energy": 87.803659, "activity_lines": [ 18.668134, 18.536836, 18.05919, 17.721622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.629999, "volume": 169903, "typical_volume": 142687.2, "trend": 17.409667, "fair_value": 14.787797, "relative_strength": -3.02801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.884942, "energy": 80.553681, "activity_lines": [ 18.6796, 18.578436, 18.15639, 17.8048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.691999, "volume": 188253, "typical_volume": 143172.1, "trend": 17.478067, "fair_value": 14.832272, "relative_strength": -2.46964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.991371, "energy": 65.867893, "activity_lines": [ 18.6916, 18.616691, 18.251447, 17.887531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.538, "volume": 182510, "typical_volume": 144711.25, "trend": 17.542267, "fair_value": 14.876874, "relative_strength": -3.834905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.765441, "energy": 61.002279, "activity_lines": [ 18.648, 18.615491, 18.322352, 17.955914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.184, "volume": 143669, "typical_volume": 143330.8, "trend": 17.613733, "fair_value": 14.926169, "relative_strength": -3.272769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.516116, "energy": 69.647188, "activity_lines": [ 18.8144, 18.727854, 18.445962, 18.061832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }