{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05b2a531-218c-499f-b1d5-2a4148c1460f", "symbol": "TNL", "name": "Thanulux Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.767, "architecture_energy": 70.01, "architecture_maturity": 44.978, "architecture_confidence": 94.975, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 25.28, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 65.11, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.626667, 18.950909, 20.014762, 20.858071 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.5, "trend_reference": 21.778006, "distance_from_trend": -0.150519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.145039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.365244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.343408, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195915, "excess_performance": -0.388241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.365244, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.176101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9900, "relative_activity": 7.2, "balance": 0.176101, "dry_up": 2.981818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030769, "annualized_volatility": 0.15351, "from_high_reference": -0.345642, "from_low_reference": 0.010929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.778006, "fair_value_reference": 29.145039, "structural_low": 18.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002299, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.011888, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.318182, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018044, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.343074, "worst_return": -0.189655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012989, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004883, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.054473, "worst_return": -0.15464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.890909, 23.100791, 23.061742 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 21.9, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 470.0, "trend": 23.021855, "fair_value": 30.343593, "relative_strength": -24.762449, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.627676, "energy": 87.740799, "activity_lines": [ 22.12, 22.652727, 22.993098, 22.984886 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 520.0, "trend": 22.919024, "fair_value": 30.270614, "relative_strength": -29.200681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.017586, "energy": 97.461718, "activity_lines": [ 21.586666, 22.250909, 22.774776, 22.841541 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 515.0, "trend": 22.832441, "fair_value": 30.197635, "relative_strength": -29.108083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"relative_strength": -27.559381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.218221, "energy": 95.035882, "activity_lines": [ 20.32, 20.883636, 21.85525, 22.225868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.9, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 665.0, "trend": 22.418187, "fair_value": 29.832852, "relative_strength": -33.648869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.474098, "energy": 98.405617, "activity_lines": [ 19.793333, 20.421818, 21.515226, 21.990264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.6, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 680.0, "trend": 22.274519, "fair_value": 29.70298, "relative_strength": -34.272623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.929318, "energy": 94.674327, "activity_lines": [ 19.293333, 19.989091, 21.16619, 21.743929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 795.0, "trend": 22.134184, "fair_value": 29.567636, "relative_strength": -33.940381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.887603, "energy": 72.655729, "activity_lines": [ 18.973334, 19.654545, 20.849524, 21.513315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 955.0, "trend": 21.993849, "fair_value": 29.430764, "relative_strength": -33.442281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.128983, "energy": 70.170334, "activity_lines": [ 18.793334, 19.372727, 20.554762, 21.291755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 955.0, "trend": 21.928257, "fair_value": 29.287778, "relative_strength": -31.855175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.32665, "energy": 68.251338, "activity_lines": [ 18.700001, 19.150909, 20.281905, 21.079249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.5, "volume": 9900, "typical_volume": 1375.0, "trend": 21.778006, "fair_value": 29.145039, "relative_strength": -31.343408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.766513, "energy": 70.01015, "activity_lines": [ 18.626667, 18.950909, 20.014762, 20.858071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }