{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05b394d9-2466-4905-884a-ca7d529f9dee", "symbol": "MFEC", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI EMU UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.379, "architecture_energy": 59.342, "architecture_maturity": 56.585, "architecture_confidence": 77.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 52.58, "upward_expansion": 80.46, "deceleration": 67.05, "rotation_down": 27.1, "downward_expansion": 9.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.165734, 19.095891, 18.738772, 18.390744 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.558001, "trend_reference": 18.027933, "distance_from_trend": 0.084872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.854235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.394505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11125, "excess_performance": 0.057939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053945, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.259314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158103, "relative_activity": 0.700509, "balance": 3.259314, "dry_up": 0.285437, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022843, "annualized_volatility": 0.166838, "from_high_reference": -0.005188, "from_low_reference": 0.261807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.027933, "fair_value_reference": 14.854235, "structural_low": 15.916, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.013604, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007261, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.078688, "worst_return": -0.092104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.031279, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.013389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.11617, "worst_return": -0.0959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062536, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.016282, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.149412, "worst_return": -0.170535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.079467, 18.839746, 18.333581, 18.074568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.827999, "volume": 23403, "typical_volume": 230229.0, "trend": 17.8462, "fair_value": 14.717671, "relative_strength": 6.703612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.726735, "energy": 63.702002, "activity_lines": [ 19.0084, 18.883309, 18.419038, 18.142107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.940001, "volume": 29561, "typical_volume": 227228.75, "trend": 17.898333, "fair_value": 14.76003, "relative_strength": 6.657885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.436481, "energy": 53.776438, "activity_lines": [ 18.9744, 18.929164, 18.511743, 18.212675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.062, "volume": 46622, "typical_volume": 223749.7, "trend": 17.9616, "fair_value": 14.805388, "relative_strength": 5.400725, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.265522, "energy": 47.738757, "activity_lines": [ 18.9932, 18.974327, 18.606686, 18.287751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.558001, "volume": 158103, "typical_volume": 225697.3, "trend": 18.027933, "fair_value": 14.854235, "relative_strength": 5.394505, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.378747, "energy": 59.342205, "activity_lines": [ 19.165734, 19.095891, 18.738772, 18.390744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }