{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05bc52fe-9de9-4aef-91ba-7b81c75fd2db", "symbol": "AKASH", "name": "Akash Infra-Projects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.557, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.28, "architecture_energy": 6.887, "architecture_maturity": 13.641, "architecture_confidence": 65.934, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.23, "rotation_up": 30.25, "upward_expansion": 48.52, "deceleration": 71.8, "rotation_down": 21.59, "downward_expansion": 24.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.731334, 26.761091, 26.907143, 26.657269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.32, "trend_reference": 26.276333, "distance_from_trend": 0.001662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.99109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.054638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080903, "excess_performance": 0.124613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34188, "relative_activity": 1.07838, "balance": 0.496087, "dry_up": 1.123108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060498, "annualized_volatility": 0.382405, "from_high_reference": -0.268889, "from_low_reference": 0.154386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.276333, "fair_value_reference": 30.99109, "structural_low": 22.799999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.033229, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.036607, "regime_survival": 0.576923, "best_return": 0.180478, "worst_return": -0.555748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.10916, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.108488, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.153342, "worst_return": -0.762887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.236237, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.260467, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.546126, "worst_return": -0.813901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.285622, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.330674, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.452963, "worst_return": -0.857864, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047482, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007541, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.35, "volume": 70165, "typical_volume": 201303.5, "trend": 27.465, "fair_value": 126.531882, "relative_strength": -20.026597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance 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32184.4, "trend": 26.504333, "fair_value": 30.989423, "relative_strength": 4.680126, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.828275, "energy": 17.38673, "activity_lines": [ 27.031334, 26.929455, 26.941286, 26.659183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.690001, "volume": 49936, "typical_volume": 32846.75, "trend": 26.535333, "fair_value": 30.991923, "relative_strength": 1.057228, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.361956, "energy": 16.906421, "activity_lines": [ 26.950001, 26.862728, 26.948572, 26.671161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.32, "volume": 34188, "typical_volume": 31703.1, "trend": 26.276333, "fair_value": 30.99109, "relative_strength": -1.054638, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.280493, "energy": 6.887369, "activity_lines": [ 26.731334, 26.761091, 26.907143, 26.657269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }