{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05bd6bb7-0564-4cfe-bdd4-6fe01e44a148", "symbol": "ADXN", "name": "Addex Therapeutics Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.539, "architecture_energy": 53.415, "architecture_maturity": 28.327, "architecture_confidence": 95.273, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.27, "rotation_up": 14.96, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 60.56, "downward_expansion": 83.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.679013, 5.825013, 6.121075, 6.309102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 6.659657, "distance_from_trend": -0.129084, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.422214, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.311345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.949321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265823, "excess_performance": -0.453276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129084, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.311345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.329493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6705, "relative_activity": 0.364436, "balance": 0.459724, "dry_up": 0.47397, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127121, "annualized_volatility": 0.625126, "from_high_reference": -0.518668, "from_low_reference": 0.150794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.659657, "fair_value_reference": 8.422214, "structural_low": 5.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.06882, "positive_rate": 0.302326, "directional_follow_through": 0.697674, "median_excess_return": -0.073632, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 1.144161, "worst_return": -0.69119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.200743, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.221644, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.12963, "worst_return": -0.697674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.112112, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.263666, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.666685, "worst_return": -0.758364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -61.864285, "energy": 46.094444, "activity_lines": [ 5.9697, 6.111473, 6.335379, 6.538573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.885, "volume": 2563, "typical_volume": 18323.05, "trend": 6.822657, "fair_value": 8.494765, "relative_strength": -29.616966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.342576, "energy": 44.966815, "activity_lines": [ 5.925027, 6.041562, 6.281642, 6.473552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 9189, "typical_volume": 18586.7, "trend": 6.726323, "fair_value": 8.457586, "relative_strength": -37.44842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.502329, "energy": 56.917553, "activity_lines": [ 5.67302, 5.863924, 6.168787, 6.368864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 6705, "typical_volume": 18398.3, "trend": 6.659657, "fair_value": 8.422214, "relative_strength": -32.949321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.539351, "energy": 53.414788, "activity_lines": [ 5.679013, 5.825013, 6.121075, 6.309102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }