{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05bf33ce-417e-4be4-9d76-928f499c5f30", "symbol": "PLUS", "name": "Plus500 Ltd.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.643, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.977, "architecture_energy": 51.889, "architecture_maturity": 13.18, "architecture_confidence": 92.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.85, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 25.37, "deceleration": 53.1, "rotation_down": 74.57, "downward_expansion": 48.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 3980.0, 4296.981818, 4428.990476, 4407.985966 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3756.0, "trend_reference": 4366.199992, "distance_from_trend": -0.139755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2845.09292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.436122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168058, "excess_performance": -0.219293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094444, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320168, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.416274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168058, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.130636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 744553, "relative_activity": 1.366993, "balance": 0.130636, "dry_up": 1.688399, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089891, "annualized_volatility": 0.359299, "from_high_reference": -0.275603, "from_low_reference": 0.307254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4366.199992, "fair_value_reference": 2845.09292, "structural_low": 3724.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003168, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030724, "worst_return": 0.002945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022354, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072601, "worst_return": -0.114841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051627, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310972, "worst_return": -0.193944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066085, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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4621.142857, 4506.295408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4210.0, "volume": 1531479, "typical_volume": 599572.4, "trend": 4340.298828, "fair_value": 2798.58155, "relative_strength": 3.025861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.121979, "energy": 18.085415, "activity_lines": [ 4671.466667, 4697.454545, 4596.809524, 4499.258921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3974.0, "volume": 676934, "typical_volume": 571682.35, "trend": 4352.932308, "fair_value": 2814.464094, "relative_strength": -3.996332, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.139942, "energy": 10.954235, "activity_lines": [ 4417.866667, 4570.8, 4549.038095, 4475.626738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3910.0, "volume": 725480, "typical_volume": 560043.85, "trend": 4361.499658, "fair_value": 2830.166586, "relative_strength": -6.628565, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.912742, "energy": 40.106971, "activity_lines": [ 4198.8, 4441.127273, 4495.771429, 4447.05046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3756.0, "volume": 744553, "typical_volume": 544664.65, "trend": 4366.199992, "fair_value": 2845.09292, "relative_strength": -10.436122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.976975, "energy": 51.88906, "activity_lines": [ 3980.0, 4296.981818, 4428.990476, 4407.985966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }