{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05c3bbbe-fe7f-49c6-abb6-6c367edfabb1", "symbol": "CRNT", "name": "Ceragon Networks Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.953, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.927, "architecture_energy": 44.119, "architecture_maturity": 10.374, "architecture_confidence": 78.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.56, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 23.24, "deceleration": 51.26, "rotation_down": 65.34, "downward_expansion": 52.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.187333, 2.298909, 2.440905, 2.428086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.401333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079678, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.566827, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.094158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.258882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079678, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1715946, "relative_activity": 0.566574, "balance": 0.626394, "dry_up": 1.195834, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14992, "annualized_volatility": 0.375779, "from_high_reference": -0.328267, "from_low_reference": 0.194595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.401333, "fair_value_reference": 2.566827, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.040544, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.116279, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043716, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.042066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.505952, "worst_return": -0.272189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087432, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.289448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.770161, "worst_return": -0.369822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045872, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106481, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018433, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.92, "volume": 2990536, "typical_volume": 1709858.25, "trend": 1.907, "fair_value": 2.640897, "relative_strength": -14.452371, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.913493, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.120277, "energy": 36.250206, "activity_lines": [ 2.238667, 2.422, 2.492762, 2.455355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.17, "volume": 2700869, "typical_volume": 3039053.4, "trend": 2.401, "fair_value": 2.565865, "relative_strength": -13.608195, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.649262, "energy": 43.198388, "activity_lines": [ 2.2, 2.352364, 2.464857, 2.440409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 1715946, "typical_volume": 3028634.6, "trend": 2.401333, "fair_value": 2.566827, "relative_strength": -16.094158, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.927436, "energy": 44.119302, "activity_lines": [ 2.187333, 2.298909, 2.440905, 2.428086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }