{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05cbadc2-eba8-44ed-b000-a8b65a5861ea", "symbol": "CPHC", "name": "Canterbury Park Holding Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.949, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.853, "architecture_energy": 14.902, "architecture_maturity": 17.142, "architecture_confidence": 51.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.41, "rotation_up": 16.4, "upward_expansion": 13.58, "deceleration": 69.43, "rotation_down": 50.99, "downward_expansion": 38.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.559, 15.745174, 15.768825, 15.715969 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.545, "trend_reference": 15.634158, "distance_from_trend": -0.005703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.478261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.430889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040293, "excess_performance": -0.147161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158741, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8014, "relative_activity": 0.955857, "balance": 1.315482, "dry_up": 1.181552, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046639, "annualized_volatility": 0.15898, "from_high_reference": -0.122409, "from_low_reference": 0.090047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.634158, "fair_value_reference": 18.478261, "structural_low": 14.883174, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008261, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017804, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.165532, "worst_return": -0.087904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009017, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021825, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.200585, "worst_return": -0.128282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.18602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294896, "worst_return": -0.173845, "sufficient": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.734985, "energy": 42.524328, "activity_lines": [ 16.092529, 15.963742, 15.828388, 15.72289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.89, "volume": 15369, "typical_volume": 8395.15, "trend": 15.603874, "fair_value": 18.594398, "relative_strength": -10.007545, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.108514, "energy": 37.669856, "activity_lines": [ 16.043458, 15.964632, 15.845191, 15.744618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.55, "volume": 8411, "typical_volume": 8469.7, "trend": 15.616455, "fair_value": 18.5544, "relative_strength": -9.902551, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.058527, "energy": 10.312746, "activity_lines": [ 15.876369, 15.901238, 15.828136, 15.741143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 7831, "typical_volume": 8465.7, "trend": 15.618734, "fair_value": 18.514769, "relative_strength": -11.111644, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.33098, "energy": 11.771283, "activity_lines": [ 15.628, 15.797476, 15.785981, 15.720726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.545, "volume": 8014, "typical_volume": 8384.1, "trend": 15.634158, "fair_value": 18.478261, "relative_strength": -13.430889, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.853472, "energy": 14.901988, "activity_lines": [ 15.559, 15.745174, 15.768825, 15.715969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }