{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05cfde38-42e9-4c0f-8b08-bd288ce7ced4", "symbol": "WSREUA", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.43, "architecture_energy": 60.013, "architecture_maturity": 64.547, "architecture_confidence": 66.27, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.94, "rotation_up": 49.24, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.83, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 178.969332, 179.009453, 175.605427, 171.464202 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 182.789993, "trend_reference": 167.03275, "distance_from_trend": 0.094336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.37541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.45486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149032, "excess_performance": -0.02186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059267, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015321, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149032, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.863547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12049, "relative_activity": 2.367842, "balance": 1.863547, "dry_up": 1.519721, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018508, "annualized_volatility": 0.125223, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.225463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.03275, "fair_value_reference": 148.37541, "structural_low": 149.160004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014636, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004595, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.107697, "worst_return": -0.055081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017558, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.08783, "worst_return": -0.184977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087155, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.002349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161631, "worst_return": -0.076458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.86347, "energy": 65.162273, "activity_lines": [ 178.634668, 178.218364, 173.563856, 169.739856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.169998, "volume": 6529, "typical_volume": 4613.95, "trend": 166.403275, "fair_value": 147.963577, "relative_strength": -4.306106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.956506, "energy": 53.351899, "activity_lines": [ 177.604001, 178.050182, 174.316761, 170.406995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 182.789993, "volume": 12049, "typical_volume": 5088.6, "trend": 167.03275, "fair_value": 148.37541, "relative_strength": -3.45486, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.430038, "energy": 60.012906, "activity_lines": [ 178.969332, 179.009453, 175.605427, 171.464202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }