{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05d0d062-5ad5-4af2-8ab9-b79f01501c29", "symbol": "KSM-F10", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) ISE Clean Edge Water", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.552, "architecture_energy": 67.355, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.963, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.68, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 233.14, 601.352727, 6804.94, 11070.83957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 237.3, "trend_reference": 16087.976667, "distance_from_trend": -0.98525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23591.277564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.972983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990178, "excess_performance": -1.031465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.863312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.634103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.045757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 846, "relative_activity": 0.594185, "balance": 2.045757, "dry_up": 1.006462, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.561671, "annualized_volatility": 6.336736, "from_high_reference": -0.991221, "from_low_reference": 0.108879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16087.976667, "fair_value_reference": 23591.277564, "structural_low": 214.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.018674, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.035167, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.082017, "worst_return": -0.988712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025739, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.067747, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.065767, "worst_return": -0.991003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111691, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078586, "worst_return": -0.991435, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011223, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": 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14448.206882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 226.0, "volume": 733, "typical_volume": 1436.05, "trend": 17681.863333, "fair_value": 23882.986538, "relative_strength": -99.093501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.345928, "energy": 74.55017, "activity_lines": [ 227.54, 2429.241818, 9364.272857, 13269.841505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 236.1, "volume": 2109, "typical_volume": 1512.35, "trend": 16876.066667, "fair_value": 23740.910256, "relative_strength": -99.002184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.96367, "energy": 68.011668, "activity_lines": [ 230.413333, 1334.061818, 8028.397143, 12144.308387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 237.3, "volume": 846, "typical_volume": 1423.8, "trend": 16087.976667, "fair_value": 23591.277564, "relative_strength": -98.972983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.552174, "energy": 67.35492, "activity_lines": [ 233.14, 601.352727, 6804.94, 11070.83957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }