{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05d3afc8-6808-4b0f-bae5-a96b4d632153", "symbol": "AVDE", "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS INTERNATIONAL EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.168, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.173, "architecture_energy": 65.859, "architecture_maturity": 37.389, "architecture_confidence": 80.798, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.7, "rotation_up": 68.3, "upward_expansion": 88.3, "deceleration": 44.19, "rotation_down": 15.81, "downward_expansion": 12.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.514667, 90.674141, 89.931687, 89.014165 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 93.95, "trend_reference": 88.021163, "distance_from_trend": 0.067357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.914129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.153304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072219, "excess_performance": -0.053406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001533, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.0628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4755274, "relative_activity": 0.919797, "balance": 2.0628, "dry_up": 0.916162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025696, "annualized_volatility": 0.174763, "from_high_reference": -0.000585, "from_low_reference": 0.278683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.021163, "fair_value_reference": 67.914129, "structural_low": 80.071372, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.017498, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.006428, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.065388, "worst_return": -0.07225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03081, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.028608, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.120765, "worst_return": -0.089646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048678, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.044335, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.179585, "worst_return": -0.013607, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.60384, "energy": 32.673088, "activity_lines": [ 89.746, 89.577619, 88.706145, 88.022156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.33, "volume": 4517206, "typical_volume": 5502684.75, "trend": 87.091257, "fair_value": 67.180278, "relative_strength": -0.695474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.492527, "energy": 27.319096, "activity_lines": [ 89.602667, 89.547772, 88.86235, 88.185508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.81, "volume": 3984552, "typical_volume": 5338268.25, "trend": 87.363659, "fair_value": 67.406718, "relative_strength": 0.351516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.54628, "energy": 30.057681, "activity_lines": [ 89.662667, 89.616306, 89.071723, 88.360911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.21, "volume": 5688911, "typical_volume": 5272774.05, "trend": 87.670898, "fair_value": 67.651671, "relative_strength": 0.714391, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.381798, "energy": 38.280679, "activity_lines": [ 90.218667, 89.910721, 89.391099, 88.609062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.95, "volume": 4755274, "typical_volume": 5169918.9, "trend": 88.021163, "fair_value": 67.914129, "relative_strength": 0.153304, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.173255, "energy": 65.859043, "activity_lines": [ 91.514667, 90.674141, 89.931687, 89.014165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }