{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05d61554-2a39-4855-96f2-097c7d34c726", "symbol": "CORPS", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI Global Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF hUSD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.897, "architecture_energy": 30.36, "architecture_maturity": 8.805, "architecture_confidence": 54.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.88, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 18.17, "deceleration": 64.15, "rotation_down": 64.82, "downward_expansion": 43.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.014433, 15.060073, 15.070898, 15.064899 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.047, "trend_reference": 15.064333, "distance_from_trend": -0.001151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.187366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.717033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002486, "excess_performance": -0.085369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002486, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.736121, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2127, "relative_activity": 0.445184, "balance": 1.736121, "dry_up": 2.188821, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005335, "annualized_volatility": 0.035427, "from_high_reference": -0.011529, "from_low_reference": 0.025734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.064333, "fair_value_reference": 14.187366, "structural_low": 14.8675, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00481, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.02611, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015027, "worst_return": -0.018728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035427, "worst_return": 0.00646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047022, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059546, "worst_return": 0.036618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.042173, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001332, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.7705, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 137.5, "trend": 12.855717, "fair_value": 13.59048, "relative_strength": 2.421686, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 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15.077698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.069, "volume": 14730, "typical_volume": 3738.05, "trend": 15.062167, "fair_value": 14.133411, "relative_strength": -8.740955, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.136663, "energy": 47.937508, "activity_lines": [ 15.138333, 15.125564, 15.08789, 15.078318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.0695, "volume": 14889, "typical_volume": 4482.5, "trend": 15.065617, "fair_value": 14.147219, "relative_strength": -9.182473, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.661176, "energy": 25.738912, "activity_lines": [ 15.113833, 15.119136, 15.088395, 15.078791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.9545, "volume": 12762, "typical_volume": 4396.35, "trend": 15.064917, "fair_value": 14.160209, "relative_strength": -9.509549, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.584282, "energy": 23.039423, "activity_lines": [ 15.054633, 15.092009, 15.078519, 15.071623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9775, "volume": 12053, "typical_volume": 4706.9, "trend": 15.0638, "fair_value": 14.173565, "relative_strength": -9.2016, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.051193, "energy": 35.448022, "activity_lines": [ 15.0151, 15.069218, 15.071495, 15.065983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.047, "volume": 2127, "typical_volume": 4777.8, "trend": 15.064333, "fair_value": 14.187366, "relative_strength": -9.717033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.897355, "energy": 30.360176, "activity_lines": [ 15.014433, 15.060073, 15.070898, 15.064899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }