{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05e3e6c5-e72b-41c9-985b-cacfb715b924", "symbol": "REUSE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Circular Economy Leaders UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.5, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.501, "architecture_energy": 56.562, "architecture_maturity": 60.815, "architecture_confidence": 75.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.92, "rotation_up": 45.09, "upward_expansion": 73.71, "deceleration": 94.07, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 14.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.885, 22.873909, 22.555829, 22.159191 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.43, "trend_reference": 21.722233, "distance_from_trend": 0.078618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.24984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.091999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104928, "excess_performance": -0.065964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057405, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.566005, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68597, "relative_activity": 1.252732, "balance": 1.566005, "dry_up": 1.049228, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017712, "annualized_volatility": 0.115444, "from_high_reference": -0.00064, "from_low_reference": 0.233937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.722233, "fair_value_reference": 19.24984, "structural_low": 19.587999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029348, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009666, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.058895, "worst_return": -0.032322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039305, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13438, "worst_return": -0.031133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037318, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096411, "worst_return": 0.019753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.080933, "active": false }, { 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21.418733, "fair_value": 19.094083, "relative_strength": -4.66559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.3807, "energy": 83.586182, "activity_lines": [ 22.983666, 22.776909, 22.17439, 21.834951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.6, "volume": 53940, "typical_volume": 58583.25, "trend": 21.496233, "fair_value": 19.13116, "relative_strength": -4.574283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.642955, "energy": 62.399329, "activity_lines": [ 22.868333, 22.786091, 22.2615, 21.911161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.525, "volume": 28153, "typical_volume": 56069.75, "trend": 21.572567, "fair_value": 19.166769, "relative_strength": -4.607003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.0833, "energy": 51.7608, "activity_lines": [ 22.737, 22.765909, 22.336371, 21.977533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.605, "volume": 79124, "typical_volume": 54673.85, "trend": 21.646733, "fair_value": 19.20484, "relative_strength": -4.815851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.437714, "energy": 40.179792, "activity_lines": [ 22.661, 22.747727, 22.411314, 22.044142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.43, "volume": 68597, "typical_volume": 54757.9, "trend": 21.722233, "fair_value": 19.24984, "relative_strength": -4.091999, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.500984, "energy": 56.561743, "activity_lines": [ 22.885, 22.873909, 22.555829, 22.159191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }