{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05e4cc10-ad33-468a-a298-1023828968eb", "symbol": "600604", "name": "Shanghai Shibei Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.13, "architecture_energy": 26.049, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.61, "rotation_up": 26.73, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 60.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.226, 4.380619, 4.588129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.44, "trend_reference": 4.896333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.781742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.712558, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1883, "excess_performance": -0.145096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.313495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77909086, "relative_activity": 1.050012, "balance": 1.313495, "dry_up": 0.927394, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089051, "annualized_volatility": 0.415947, "from_high_reference": -0.381616, "from_low_reference": 0.141388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.896333, "fair_value_reference": 4.781742, "structural_low": 3.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.002203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": 0.002012, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.203438, "worst_return": -0.224953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021882, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.028664, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.251324, "worst_return": -0.191682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0371, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.073212, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.616715, "worst_return": -0.326214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.216667, 4.182, 4.398429, 4.619935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.44, "volume": 77909086, "typical_volume": 74198307.05, "trend": 4.896333, "fair_value": 4.781742, "relative_strength": -15.712558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.129634, "energy": 26.049325, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.226, 4.380619, 4.588129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }