{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05f74362-deee-45ff-9356-54491462e45f", "symbol": "2320", "name": "Al-Babtain Power and Telecommunications Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.835, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.435, "architecture_energy": 71.939, "architecture_maturity": 9.797, "architecture_confidence": 78.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.66, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 75.81, "downward_expansion": 91.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.623335, 61.61262, 64.130044, 64.656055 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.650002, "trend_reference": 65.388187, "distance_from_trend": -0.072462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.621263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.571115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.132952, "excess_performance": -0.101123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6022451, "relative_activity": 2.930172, "balance": 0.606186, "dry_up": 1.589261, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084414, "annualized_volatility": 0.417235, "from_high_reference": -0.186997, "from_low_reference": 0.157865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.388187, "fair_value_reference": 44.621263, "structural_low": 52.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003896, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017651, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.075107, "worst_return": -0.126437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019468, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.003876, "worst_return": -0.200833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.104651, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00118, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.158009, "worst_return": -0.232379, "sufficient": false }, { 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-11.160507, "energy": 13.357969, "activity_lines": [ 65.946665, 67.257701, 66.859722, 66.566017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.0, "volume": 1693107, "typical_volume": 1741899.2, "trend": 66.104853, "fair_value": 43.865171, "relative_strength": -3.216824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.934069, "energy": 36.025978, "activity_lines": [ 63.363332, 65.85539, 66.286172, 66.155596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.75, "volume": 2086290, "typical_volume": 1744766.8, "trend": 65.914853, "fair_value": 44.137685, "relative_strength": -2.944804, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.424698, "energy": 61.763809, "activity_lines": [ 61.836666, 64.771426, 65.798097, 65.810122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.900002, "volume": 3263929, "typical_volume": 1779052.65, "trend": 65.523187, "fair_value": 44.355217, "relative_strength": -13.792556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.802329, "energy": 85.072188, "activity_lines": [ 58.440001, 62.383398, 64.567166, 64.970454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.650002, "volume": 6022451, "typical_volume": 2055323.25, "trend": 65.388187, "fair_value": 44.621263, "relative_strength": -3.571115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.43517, "energy": 71.939308, "activity_lines": [ 58.623335, 61.61262, 64.130044, 64.656055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }