{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05f9626d-f194-41f6-95ce-4f8524d57124", "symbol": "BBWI", "name": "Bath & Body Works Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.273, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.444, "architecture_energy": 5.116, "architecture_maturity": 17.234, "architecture_confidence": 46.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 73.14, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 29.33, "deceleration": 67.46, "rotation_down": 30.8, "downward_expansion": 18.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.27, 20.565455, 19.97001, 19.89072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.36, "trend_reference": 20.208703, "distance_from_trend": 0.007487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.778518, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.95442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099238, "excess_performance": -0.224863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007487, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.784939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22132214, "relative_activity": 0.7915, "balance": 1.784939, "dry_up": 0.830607, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120604, "annualized_volatility": 0.545405, "from_high_reference": -0.348942, "from_low_reference": 0.45447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.208703, "fair_value_reference": 29.778518, "structural_low": 15.561441, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.074967, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.065386, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.208014, "worst_return": -0.152586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.093148, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076155, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.14596, "worst_return": -0.515922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.144428, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.071732, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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19.610771, 19.881388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.87, "volume": 24279536, "typical_volume": 28977119.55, "trend": 20.282124, "fair_value": 30.048158, "relative_strength": -13.327797, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.020158, "energy": 36.098202, "activity_lines": [ 21.188667, 20.524397, 19.747269, 19.922463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.9, "volume": 22600996, "typical_volume": 28362091.25, "trend": 20.298581, "fair_value": 29.960555, "relative_strength": -15.807978, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.983181, "energy": 12.542728, "activity_lines": [ 20.716667, 20.548805, 19.799156, 19.89781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.12, "volume": 23890271, "typical_volume": 28055869.45, "trend": 20.291318, "fair_value": 29.865823, "relative_strength": -14.925133, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.290628, "energy": 3.854119, "activity_lines": [ 20.362, 20.558598, 19.875157, 19.886289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.36, "volume": 22132214, "typical_volume": 27962376.65, "trend": 20.208703, "fair_value": 29.778518, "relative_strength": -15.95442, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.444142, "energy": 5.115958, "activity_lines": [ 20.27, 20.565455, 19.97001, 19.89072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }