{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05fc8c83-02fe-4f37-a119-b8fad8237b8f", "symbol": "AMBAN", "name": "Ambarella, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.556, "architecture_energy": 40.217, "architecture_maturity": 13.332, "architecture_confidence": 80.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.27, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 57.98, "rotation_down": 70.42, "downward_expansion": 44.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1043.449975, 1123.216349, 1173.1338, 1152.166229 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1016.409973, "trend_reference": 1138.653996, "distance_from_trend": -0.107358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1163.636221, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.125115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144436, "excess_performance": -0.089769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.150782, "dry_up": 3.805847, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127573, "annualized_volatility": 0.913748, "from_high_reference": -0.350537, "from_low_reference": 0.116934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1138.653996, "fair_value_reference": 1163.636221, "structural_low": 910.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034948, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175776, "worst_return": -0.362909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154882, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191962, "worst_return": -0.362909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.178155, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.136887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.144436, "worst_return": -0.420118, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"relative_strength": -9.717438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.307788, "energy": 44.29155, "activity_lines": [ 1287.176652, 1257.678174, 1163.74571, 1160.982513 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1190.329956, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96.25, "trend": 1182.288664, "fair_value": 1174.552182, "relative_strength": -8.816838, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.169205, "energy": 26.050077, "activity_lines": [ 1241.997974, 1256.041258, 1169.670801, 1161.276274 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1121.300049, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96.25, "trend": 1172.998665, "fair_value": 1172.265965, "relative_strength": -12.98157, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.437386, "energy": 26.167589, "activity_lines": [ 1185.587329, 1236.756541, 1169.010521, 1157.341525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1422.01001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.8, "trend": 1173.732332, "fair_value": 1171.907375, "relative_strength": 10.753028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.822439, "energy": 20.073023, "activity_lines": [ 1245.793335, 1270.013634, 1197.306903, 1173.406773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1422.01001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.8, "trend": 1174.465999, "fair_value": 1171.548786, "relative_strength": 11.861253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.404796, "energy": 44.75418, "activity_lines": [ 1315.532007, 1298.325091, 1224.069904, 1189.424687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1016.409973, "volume": 1380, "typical_volume": 128.05, "trend": 1165.346332, "fair_value": 1169.410388, "relative_strength": -19.58306, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.284894, "energy": 10.602628, "activity_lines": [ 1231.269999, 1247.94545, 1210.670949, 1179.227524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1016.409973, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.95, "trend": 1156.226664, "fair_value": 1167.271991, "relative_strength": -18.678864, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.667476, "energy": 5.17219, "activity_lines": [ 1158.602657, 1199.994719, 1198.274804, 1169.618727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1016.409973, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.95, "trend": 1147.106997, "fair_value": 1165.454106, "relative_strength": -18.722825, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.241698, "energy": 31.638841, "activity_lines": [ 1097.52998, 1158.418352, 1185.762421, 1160.598295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1016.409973, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.65, "trend": 1138.653996, "fair_value": 1163.636221, "relative_strength": -18.125115, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.555921, "energy": 40.216729, "activity_lines": [ 1043.449975, 1123.216349, 1173.1338, 1152.166229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }