{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06061978-7fc4-4f2d-b049-11d87b7c1c69", "symbol": "ECC", "name": "Eagle Point Credit Company Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.833, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.814, "architecture_energy": 27.631, "architecture_maturity": 32.247, "architecture_confidence": 41.322, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.9, "rotation_up": 37.07, "upward_expansion": 61.96, "deceleration": 59.74, "rotation_down": 26.11, "downward_expansion": 16.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.785312, 3.758538, 3.762925, 3.63049 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.88, "trend_reference": 3.543078, "distance_from_trend": 0.095093, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.467147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.123233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055152, "excess_performance": -0.070473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095093, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68421, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4533695, "relative_activity": 0.906927, "balance": 0.68421, "dry_up": 0.860652, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057402, "annualized_volatility": 0.520389, "from_high_reference": -0.217231, "from_low_reference": 0.474809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.543078, "fair_value_reference": 4.467147, "structural_low": 2.63085, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018547, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.012086, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.04961, "worst_return": -0.05105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054077, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.007724, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.101045, "worst_return": -0.044508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01294, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160586, "worst_return": -0.075948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.744858, "energy": 18.251081, "activity_lines": [ 3.729605, 3.772664, 3.69586, 3.589391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.57, "volume": 4242473, "typical_volume": 5781426.15, "trend": 3.558894, "fair_value": 4.474358, "relative_strength": -14.309228, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.588503, "energy": 14.542888, "activity_lines": [ 3.684011, 3.725511, 3.70268, 3.589181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 3927327, "typical_volume": 5164254.5, "trend": 3.55082, "fair_value": 4.471034, "relative_strength": -7.57349, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.976069, "energy": 27.28745, "activity_lines": [ 3.740594, 3.740136, 3.735095, 3.609252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.88, "volume": 4533695, "typical_volume": 4998962.4, "trend": 3.543078, "fair_value": 4.467147, "relative_strength": -10.123233, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.813503, "energy": 27.631267, "activity_lines": [ 3.785312, 3.758538, 3.762925, 3.63049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }