{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0606cad2-02ab-4f89-b368-965eefc9b3f9", "symbol": "SXLY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.151, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.313, "architecture_energy": 28.845, "architecture_maturity": 17.362, "architecture_confidence": 72.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.17, "rotation_up": 42.83, "upward_expansion": 66.76, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 27.69, "downward_expansion": 13.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.264067, 63.172819, 63.062033, 62.359032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 65.389, "trend_reference": 61.796333, "distance_from_trend": 0.058137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.197058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.514275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093791, "excess_performance": -0.022872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054998, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.959545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41, "relative_activity": 0.013211, "balance": 1.959545, "dry_up": 0.020058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031099, "annualized_volatility": 0.235932, "from_high_reference": -0.000474, "from_low_reference": 0.164251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.796333, "fair_value_reference": 55.197058, "structural_low": 56.164001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004091, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.026987, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087884, "worst_return": -0.120415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081829, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.061955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339745, "worst_return": -0.130352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115413, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.09652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173631, "worst_return": -0.131735, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -5.620247, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.040484, "energy": 60.056945, "activity_lines": [ 63.9278, 63.576636, 62.887095, 62.230959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.337002, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 3605.8, "trend": 61.747466, "fair_value": 54.95584, "relative_strength": -12.919439, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.5642, "energy": 9.479089, "activity_lines": [ 62.502668, 62.822309, 62.648133, 62.067613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.665001, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 3265.25, "trend": 61.789533, "fair_value": 55.064686, "relative_strength": -8.613588, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.48329, "energy": 14.948905, "activity_lines": [ 62.449601, 62.734964, 62.733795, 62.126808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.389, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 3103.45, "trend": 61.796333, "fair_value": 55.197058, "relative_strength": -5.514275, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.313201, "energy": 28.844567, "activity_lines": [ 63.264067, 63.172819, 63.062033, 62.359032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }