{ "ticker": { "uuid": "060b5be2-a197-4db5-b016-91ea313319b7", "symbol": "NANO", "name": "Nanoco Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.989, "architecture_energy": 48.237, "architecture_maturity": 47.765, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 7.16, "deceleration": 50.59, "rotation_down": 54.9, "downward_expansion": 82.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0251, 0.026093, 0.034126, 0.039988 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.048423, "distance_from_trend": -0.504371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.122033, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.803332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.009553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.59596, "excess_performance": -0.647195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.504371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293915, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.803332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.690096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.59596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1778672, "relative_activity": 0.291076, "balance": 0.122829, "dry_up": 0.413552, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.472885, "annualized_volatility": 1.476317, "from_high_reference": -0.830914, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.048423, "fair_value_reference": 0.122033, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.041073, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.054943, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.680645, "worst_return": -0.451643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.089011, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.061373, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.386921, "worst_return": -0.417436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066158, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.08414, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.855586, "worst_return": -0.323077, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258114, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.447222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.291262, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 6015344.35, "trend": 0.052157, "fair_value": 0.124027, "relative_strength": -68.677871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.101324, "energy": 47.934578, "activity_lines": [ 0.026347, 0.027955, 0.037705, 0.043436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 2682174, "typical_volume": 6126947.85, "trend": 0.050283, "fair_value": 0.123033, "relative_strength": -68.666769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.137883, "energy": 47.707042, "activity_lines": [ 0.025773, 0.026671, 0.035889, 0.041684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 1778672, "typical_volume": 6110671.5, "trend": 0.048423, "fair_value": 0.122033, "relative_strength": -69.009553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.988893, "energy": 48.2373, "activity_lines": [ 0.0251, 0.026093, 0.034126, 0.039988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }