{ "ticker": { "uuid": "060ccdb0-d999-43a5-88a7-988ac97e06a8", "symbol": "SND", "name": "Smart Sand Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.015, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.368, "architecture_energy": 28.978, "architecture_maturity": 15.854, "architecture_confidence": 46.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.83, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 12.99, "deceleration": 47.91, "rotation_down": 53.13, "downward_expansion": 54.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.499367, 4.620331, 4.755187, 4.768984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 4.748762, "distance_from_trend": -0.048173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.528938, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.787311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.636171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061794, "excess_performance": -0.249248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.787311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061794, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.917477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1536045, "relative_activity": 0.870442, "balance": 0.917477, "dry_up": 0.821475, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151158, "annualized_volatility": 0.741649, "from_high_reference": -0.236486, "from_low_reference": 1.568316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.748762, "fair_value_reference": 2.528938, "structural_low": 3.571579, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.037267, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.03973, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.166666, "worst_return": -0.180555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026042, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.049679, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.385, "worst_return": -0.149254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067708, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014811, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.072287, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.657234, "volume": 1398776, "typical_volume": 1879561.6, "trend": 4.688381, "fair_value": 2.473717, "relative_strength": 15.574048, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.327861, "energy": 10.625245, "activity_lines": [ 4.692772, 4.80639, 4.857892, 4.81722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.549835, "volume": 1089110, "typical_volume": 1784479.35, "trend": 4.713794, "fair_value": 2.492794, "relative_strength": 13.469773, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.954216, "energy": 16.989462, "activity_lines": [ 4.634453, 4.754651, 4.834969, 4.808282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 1774604, "typical_volume": 1790641.45, "trend": 4.725325, "fair_value": 2.510503, "relative_strength": 5.910675, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.234098, "energy": 30.030223, "activity_lines": [ 4.512199, 4.662946, 4.786649, 4.78223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 1536045, "typical_volume": 1764671.55, "trend": 4.748762, "fair_value": 2.528938, "relative_strength": 4.636171, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.36792, "energy": 28.97782, "activity_lines": [ 4.499367, 4.620331, 4.755187, 4.768984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }