{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06143d28-6980-4958-9b62-ddd04ea88010", "symbol": "3040", "name": "Global X ETF Series - Global X MSCI China ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.269, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.761, "architecture_energy": 19.553, "architecture_maturity": 99.66, "architecture_confidence": 64.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 39.38, "upward_expansion": 23.61, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 18.41, "downward_expansion": 55.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.178667, 33.574182, 33.941714, 34.428258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.02, "trend_reference": 35.311333, "distance_from_trend": -0.00825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.504627, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.847925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067128, "excess_performance": -0.033547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040488, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.177449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8000, "relative_activity": 0.163207, "balance": 1.177449, "dry_up": 2.322127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033739, "annualized_volatility": 0.172491, "from_high_reference": -0.149174, "from_low_reference": 0.1326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.311333, "fair_value_reference": 31.504627, "structural_low": 30.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007804, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00082, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.071782, "worst_return": -0.058275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.051839, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022486, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.051839, "worst_return": -0.051839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072102, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037157, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023969, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 21.620001, "volume": 62400, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.686356, "energy": 74.936664, "activity_lines": [ 34.341333, 34.869091, 35.243238, 35.824774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 33.119999, "volume": 34300, "typical_volume": 24560.25, "trend": 36.372667, "fair_value": 31.409134, "relative_strength": -2.922181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.720682, "energy": 84.92658, "activity_lines": [ 33.86, 34.486545, 34.988, 35.607183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.120001, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 24568.6, "trend": 36.152667, "fair_value": 31.406875, "relative_strength": -3.713052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.454606, "energy": 95.63209, "activity_lines": [ 32.870667, 33.785455, 34.570762, 35.268301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.32, "volume": 40600, "typical_volume": 25453.6, "trend": 35.962666, "fair_value": 31.413954, "relative_strength": -2.876253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.022361, "energy": 88.424572, "activity_lines": [ 32.52, 33.398545, 34.298381, 35.021032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.34, "volume": 118251, "typical_volume": 30951.15, "trend": 35.815333, "fair_value": 31.428769, "relative_strength": -3.202961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.655533, "energy": 79.818147, "activity_lines": [ 32.64, 33.260727, 34.147333, 34.851828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.98, "volume": 184500, "typical_volume": 39994.55, "trend": 35.673333, "fair_value": 31.440611, "relative_strength": -5.669776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.13596, "energy": 58.058564, "activity_lines": [ 32.705333, 33.092727, 33.980095, 34.668903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.240002, "volume": 207000, "typical_volume": 48167.55, "trend": 35.536667, "fair_value": 31.454243, "relative_strength": -6.340969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.430784, "energy": 45.474168, "activity_lines": [ 32.926667, 33.032728, 33.856381, 34.511914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.639999, "volume": 55800, "typical_volume": 49017.55, "trend": 35.42, "fair_value": 31.478196, "relative_strength": -5.765728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.878688, "energy": 20.800285, "activity_lines": [ 33.606667, 33.268364, 33.878, 34.454064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.02, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 49017.55, "trend": 35.311333, "fair_value": 31.504627, "relative_strength": -3.847925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.76121, "energy": 19.553331, "activity_lines": [ 34.178667, 33.574182, 33.941714, 34.428258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }