{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0622c6fb-4e9f-4384-a689-d4fd9b814f4b", "symbol": "AVS", "name": "DIREXION DAILY AVGO BEAR 1X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.343, "architecture_energy": 40.517, "architecture_maturity": 53.461, "architecture_confidence": 91.128, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.51, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 4.11, "deceleration": 51.27, "rotation_down": 54.63, "downward_expansion": 77.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.405433, 7.599439, 7.622327, 7.999297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.8599, "trend_reference": 8.521163, "distance_from_trend": -0.194957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.4081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.754573, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.289336, "excess_performance": -0.47679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488376, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.014342, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68363103, "relative_activity": 1.703559, "balance": 1.014342, "dry_up": 1.943149, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114776, "annualized_volatility": 0.476728, "from_high_reference": -0.444906, "from_low_reference": 0.10263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.521163, "fair_value_reference": 13.4081, "structural_low": 6.221396, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059093, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.068301, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.082124, "worst_return": -0.074862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027584, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04405, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027584, "worst_return": 0.027584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"fair_value": 13.539976, "relative_strength": -24.359614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.531636, "energy": 19.875317, "activity_lines": [ 7.827653, 7.774555, 7.792386, 8.18331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.56, "volume": 94813137, "typical_volume": 36997473.75, "trend": 8.606142, "fair_value": 13.477029, "relative_strength": -25.470059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.196157, "energy": 27.629329, "activity_lines": [ 7.714007, 7.751424, 7.735088, 8.111957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.8599, "volume": 68363103, "typical_volume": 40129573.15, "trend": 8.521163, "fair_value": 13.4081, "relative_strength": -34.754573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.343131, "energy": 40.516694, "activity_lines": [ 7.405433, 7.599439, 7.622327, 7.999297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }