{ "ticker": { "uuid": "062f6eb9-90a5-4ccb-a8a2-d4965dde3a18", "symbol": "ZWC", "name": "BMO CA High Dividend Covered Call ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.778, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.724, "architecture_energy": 75.323, "architecture_maturity": 35.848, "architecture_confidence": 78.861, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 69.35, "upward_expansion": 90.18, "deceleration": 49.56, "rotation_down": 15.19, "downward_expansion": 16.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.778854, 22.622479, 22.353603, 22.083395 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.75, "trend_reference": 21.705982, "distance_from_trend": 0.048098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.272436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.723854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098347, "excess_performance": -0.022074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007648, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098347, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.567745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355900, "relative_activity": 0.834163, "balance": 1.567745, "dry_up": 1.010828, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013867, "annualized_volatility": 0.089749, "from_high_reference": -0.011234, "from_low_reference": 0.289038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.705982, "fair_value_reference": 17.272436, "structural_low": 20.496794, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.015631, "positive_rate": 0.780488, "directional_follow_through": 0.780488, "median_excess_return": -0.003287, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.042425, "worst_return": -0.047589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029296, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000105, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.097584, "worst_return": -0.110132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076477, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011133, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.147612, "worst_return": -0.04623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.103131, "relative_strength": 1.552934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.912404, "energy": 75.357295, "activity_lines": [ 22.492399, 22.373239, 22.090233, 21.835797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.884132, "volume": 368700, "typical_volume": 440155.0, "trend": 21.534625, "fair_value": 17.159573, "relative_strength": 1.628726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.537479, "energy": 80.745402, "activity_lines": [ 22.6507, 22.486208, 22.193084, 21.929065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 529500, "typical_volume": 441925.0, "trend": 21.62325, "fair_value": 17.216483, "relative_strength": 1.685396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.450041, "energy": 80.353015, "activity_lines": [ 22.742687, 22.563891, 22.279883, 22.010702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.75, "volume": 355900, "typical_volume": 426655.0, "trend": 21.705982, "fair_value": 17.272436, "relative_strength": -1.723854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.723837, "energy": 75.323191, "activity_lines": [ 22.778854, 22.622479, 22.353603, 22.083395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }