{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "06306d5f-bbc5-4b7e-b7ee-a4c4579fa3d7",
    "symbol": "XSMC",
    "name": "iShares S&P U.S. Small-Cap Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.482,
    "architecture_energy": 54.262,
    "architecture_maturity": 95.255,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.119,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.93,
        "rotation_up": 44.45,
        "upward_expansion": 69.02,
        "deceleration": 68.31,
        "rotation_down": 27.44,
        "downward_expansion": 21.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.104667,
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        39.990885,
        38.821173
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 41.560001,
    "trend_reference": 37.483731,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.108748,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.318657,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327005,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.03724,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.151566,
    "excess_performance": 0.031144,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108748,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069752,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.327005,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071742,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040372,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022293,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151566,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.851792,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 72400,
      "relative_activity": 0.393756,
      "balance": 1.851792,
      "dry_up": 0.390357,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02791,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.155158,
      "from_high_reference": -0.020273,
      "from_low_reference": 0.371101
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 37.483731,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.318657,
      "structural_low": 32.869999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.012588,
        "positive_rate": 0.65625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.65625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00396,
        "regime_survival": 0.71875,
        "best_return": 0.083904,
        "worst_return": -0.073048,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.030057,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010073,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.195947,
        "worst_return": -0.102956,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.027887,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042945,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.095072,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.112748,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 37.185104,
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        "typical_volume": 216480.0,
        "trend": 34.274354,
        "fair_value": 29.935042,
        "relative_strength": 0.599373,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 74.869841,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 240705.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": 0.87252,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 250250.0,
        "trend": 35.039653,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 246335.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 35.466627,
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        "relative_strength": 5.283482,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 36.033098,
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        "direction": 94.419383,
        "energy": 97.159763,
        "activity_lines": [
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          37.908083,
          37.071986
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 41.75,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 217965.0,
        "trend": 36.307785,
        "fair_value": 30.850606,
        "relative_strength": 8.291942,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 92.505033,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 41.25,
        "volume": 72800,
        "typical_volume": 209840.0,
        "trend": 36.548258,
        "fair_value": 30.948688,
        "relative_strength": 6.757813,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.349947,
        "energy": 88.262193,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.460992,
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          37.759671
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.869999,
        "volume": 86200,
        "typical_volume": 205525.0,
        "trend": 36.784673,
        "fair_value": 31.041673,
        "relative_strength": 5.820501,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.836183,
        "energy": 85.828275,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.34029,
          40.644496,
          39.109865,
          38.038493
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.82,
        "volume": 86200,
        "typical_volume": 202280.0,
        "trend": 37.022731,
        "fair_value": 31.13211,
        "relative_strength": 5.309207,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.268758,
        "energy": 64.198422,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.15,
          40.828336,
          39.413284,
          38.298837
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 40.830002,
        "volume": 42300,
        "typical_volume": 188880.0,
        "trend": 37.271065,
        "fair_value": 31.222363,
        "relative_strength": 5.653966,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.544195,
        "energy": 57.788414,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.952667,
          40.940021,
          39.684751,
          38.544467
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 41.560001,
        "volume": 72400,
        "typical_volume": 183870.0,
        "trend": 37.483731,
        "fair_value": 31.318657,
        "relative_strength": 4.03724,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.481722,
        "energy": 54.262165,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.104667,
          41.129944,
          39.990885,
          38.821173
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}