{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06398a47-55f0-4555-a8bc-6584eceff8b0", "symbol": "CITI", "name": "Citigroup Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.394, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.158, "architecture_energy": 28.49, "architecture_maturity": 66.173, "architecture_confidence": 76.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.17, "rotation_up": 19.56, "upward_expansion": 54.78, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 34.28, "downward_expansion": 20.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.366033, 117.959792, 115.870591, 111.904269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 116.440002, "trend_reference": 106.858404, "distance_from_trend": 0.089666, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.424367, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.677221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.602965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134762, "excess_performance": -0.039485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089666, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.677221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134762, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525, "relative_activity": 1.298059, "balance": 0.497621, "dry_up": 1.333292, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049104, "annualized_volatility": 0.294447, "from_high_reference": -0.087175, "from_low_reference": 0.49704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.858404, "fair_value_reference": 69.424367, "structural_low": 88.102164, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025893, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027943, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.175374, "worst_return": -0.157494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067867, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.028289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119706, "worst_return": -0.072778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130177, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.052543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365303, "worst_return": -0.108551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128389, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148287, "active": false }, { "regime": 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109.582476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 113.635193, "volume": 1442, "typical_volume": 539.0, "trend": 105.449638, "fair_value": 67.943122, "relative_strength": -0.528923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.095203, "energy": 56.900953, "activity_lines": [ 120.201127, 119.469789, 114.545613, 110.146379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.042801, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 451.0, "trend": 105.968214, "fair_value": 68.438028, "relative_strength": 0.063937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.348261, "energy": 39.302935, "activity_lines": [ 118.219907, 119.295165, 115.197337, 110.829809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.600517, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 409.25, "trend": 106.418166, "fair_value": 68.914112, "relative_strength": -2.866391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.649007, "energy": 27.394404, "activity_lines": [ 115.731073, 118.320439, 115.398829, 111.257699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.440002, "volume": 525, "typical_volume": 404.45, "trend": 106.858404, "fair_value": 69.424367, "relative_strength": -2.602965, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.158292, "energy": 28.489505, "activity_lines": [ 115.366033, 117.959792, 115.870591, 111.904269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }