{ "ticker": { "uuid": "063c6597-1e8b-4ae6-8f0e-addc10bd5cb4", "symbol": "HCC", "name": "Warrior Met Coal Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.191, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.98, "architecture_energy": 19.825, "architecture_maturity": 18.878, "architecture_confidence": 75.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 8.54, "deceleration": 53.01, "rotation_down": 43.0, "downward_expansion": 70.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.707333, 83.727455, 85.944877, 86.615765 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 91.97, "trend_reference": 87.762561, "distance_from_trend": 0.047941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.157907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.433494, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.201431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034699, "excess_performance": -0.090926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00813, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.433494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3457735, "relative_activity": 0.880346, "balance": 0.545281, "dry_up": 0.873876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101061, "annualized_volatility": 0.438637, "from_high_reference": -0.166863, "from_low_reference": 0.687354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.762561, "fair_value_reference": 64.157907, "structural_low": 75.709736, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039315, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010249, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.306001, "worst_return": -0.130267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016527, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.219932, "worst_return": -0.16948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.315329, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.117452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.325567, "worst_return": -0.246321, "sufficient": false 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80.09, "volume": 3081699, "typical_volume": 4182382.15, "trend": 88.832901, "fair_value": 63.06247, "relative_strength": -8.447371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.917454, "energy": 40.245418, "activity_lines": [ 83.125333, 87.036909, 87.858044, 88.11294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.91, "volume": 2714843, "typical_volume": 4067409.45, "trend": 88.554276, "fair_value": 63.313837, "relative_strength": -8.712315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.700062, "energy": 55.832658, "activity_lines": [ 80.702667, 85.378909, 87.014007, 87.472753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.07, "volume": 2880927, "typical_volume": 3946432.0, "trend": 88.25576, "fair_value": 63.561379, "relative_strength": -7.104081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.021859, "energy": 60.229328, "activity_lines": [ 79.946667, 84.058364, 86.300698, 86.92538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.41, "volume": 4675779, "typical_volume": 3982413.9, "trend": 87.923266, "fair_value": 63.821768, "relative_strength": -9.211727, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.002402, "energy": 58.718208, "activity_lines": [ 79.671333, 82.71, 85.511285, 86.354686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.97, "volume": 3457735, "typical_volume": 3927699.15, "trend": 87.762561, "fair_value": 64.157907, "relative_strength": 1.201431, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.980467, "energy": 19.824969, "activity_lines": [ 83.707333, 83.727455, 85.944877, 86.615765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }