{ "ticker": { "uuid": "064612ef-ec89-469d-8e5b-b34c033cf092", "symbol": "PAHC", "name": "Phibro Animal Health Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.754, "architecture_energy": 31.993, "architecture_maturity": 60.329, "architecture_confidence": 88.328, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.85, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 23.53, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 59.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.504333, 33.669818, 35.643914, 39.222259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.29, "trend_reference": 42.679079, "distance_from_trend": -0.196562, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.514806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.55243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.349933, "excess_performance": -0.537387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.349933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1022417, "relative_activity": 0.649571, "balance": 0.757238, "dry_up": 0.734425, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103583, "annualized_volatility": 0.578519, "from_high_reference": -0.427107, "from_low_reference": 0.246981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.679079, "fair_value_reference": 25.514806, "structural_low": 28.143764, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.040019, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.006891, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.284, "worst_return": -0.165323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004635, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.037737, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.768811, "worst_return": -0.135986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.096405, "worst_return": -0.216271, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.161504, "energy": 53.578917, "activity_lines": [ 32.246, 32.332231, 38.50308, 41.40707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.31, "volume": 1578687, "typical_volume": 1638665.0, "trend": 42.997704, "fair_value": 25.112022, "relative_strength": -26.74132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.36258, "energy": 45.448829, "activity_lines": [ 32.656, 32.375331, 37.552918, 40.774069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.035, "volume": 852181, "typical_volume": 1619207.25, "trend": 42.86758, "fair_value": 25.24434, "relative_strength": -23.902239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.771831, "energy": 39.420837, "activity_lines": [ 33.189, 32.669152, 36.771562, 40.19583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.33, "volume": 1170623, "typical_volume": 1611178.6, "trend": 42.84278, "fair_value": 25.38635, "relative_strength": -19.358529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.609387, "energy": 32.501991, "activity_lines": [ 34.341333, 33.383986, 36.274038, 39.774051 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.29, "volume": 1022417, "typical_volume": 1573989.1, "trend": 42.679079, "fair_value": 25.514806, "relative_strength": -27.55243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.753615, "energy": 31.993143, "activity_lines": [ 34.504333, 33.669818, 35.643914, 39.222259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }