{ "ticker": { "uuid": "065139de-1eaf-4103-bf15-413e30bdb9f9", "symbol": "TWIN", "name": "Twin Disc Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.498, "architecture_energy": 50.238, "architecture_maturity": 44.29, "architecture_confidence": 82.109, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 53.56, "upward_expansion": 78.26, "deceleration": 63.44, "rotation_down": 22.25, "downward_expansion": 7.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.293333, 22.961636, 21.157861, 19.962281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.14, "trend_reference": 18.768759, "distance_from_trend": 0.28618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.615354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.772998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.841011, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.46101, "excess_performance": 0.273557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.28618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.772998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.274897, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.25841, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.46101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.592176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438328, "relative_activity": 0.929908, "balance": 1.592176, "dry_up": 0.8894, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10373, "annualized_volatility": 0.616441, "from_high_reference": -0.018699, "from_low_reference": 2.042144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.768759, "fair_value_reference": 13.615354, "structural_low": 14.286043, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.016035, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.000914, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.1594, "worst_return": -0.171134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036006, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.06187, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.304228, "worst_return": -0.494048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045507, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.0495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.446908, "worst_return": -0.22381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.040779, "energy": 76.031104, "activity_lines": [ 22.723333, 21.216062, 19.439807, 18.6777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.59, "volume": 408622, "typical_volume": 441194.95, "trend": 18.110906, "fair_value": 13.406331, "relative_strength": 27.411236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.976875, "energy": 69.733591, "activity_lines": [ 22.816667, 21.67344, 19.852049, 18.982034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.22, "volume": 494650, "typical_volume": 450974.0, "trend": 18.321206, "fair_value": 13.476626, "relative_strength": 31.268967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.274093, "energy": 49.433238, "activity_lines": [ 22.948667, 22.183455, 20.303137, 19.311653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.81, "volume": 335337, "typical_volume": 458652.25, "trend": 18.54405, "fair_value": 13.54355, "relative_strength": 26.617981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.193631, "energy": 44.434654, "activity_lines": [ 22.853333, 22.513636, 20.686272, 19.601252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.14, "volume": 438328, "typical_volume": 471367.25, "trend": 18.768759, "fair_value": 13.615354, "relative_strength": 25.841011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.498428, "energy": 50.238423, "activity_lines": [ 23.293333, 22.961636, 21.157861, 19.962281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }