{ "ticker": { "uuid": "065197f4-2e24-41ea-8ab7-af7a66f3804b", "symbol": "HUBS", "name": "HubSpot, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.821, "architecture_energy": 20.925, "architecture_maturity": 41.59, "architecture_confidence": 52.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.07, "rotation_up": 38.12, "upward_expansion": 26.26, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 19.57, "downward_expansion": 48.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3787.466667, 3613.836364, 3602.165902, 3782.010401 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3630.0, "trend_reference": 4124.425325, "distance_from_trend": -0.119877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9223.845982, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.606455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.055519, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.327778, "excess_performance": -0.273111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22346, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.606455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.390555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134, "relative_activity": 0.113219, "balance": 0.345418, "dry_up": 3.217862, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095105, "annualized_volatility": 0.804167, "from_high_reference": -0.620293, "from_low_reference": 0.169459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4124.425325, "fair_value_reference": 9223.845982, "structural_low": 3104.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.13313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.151237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.118026, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.179185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.118026, "worst_return": -0.118026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.049064, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049064, "worst_return": 0.049064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.339884, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.23495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339884, "worst_return": 0.339884, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.327277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159144, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.64414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8878.410156, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.9, "trend": 7589.21862, "fair_value": 9059.593177, "relative_strength": 24.367944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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"down", "direction": -43.110698, "energy": 30.83426, "activity_lines": [ 3548.4, 3453.109091, 3575.41885, 3828.508292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4199.0, "volume": 3856, "typical_volume": 1176.85, "trend": 4228.425325, "fair_value": 9257.489637, "relative_strength": -30.833933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.216662, "energy": 20.224648, "activity_lines": [ 3799.266667, 3591.4, 3614.230471, 3820.618486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3630.0, "volume": 134, "typical_volume": 1183.55, "trend": 4124.425325, "fair_value": 9223.845982, "relative_strength": -39.055519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.821394, "energy": 20.924802, "activity_lines": [ 3787.466667, 3613.836364, 3602.165902, 3782.010401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }