{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0652d6cc-6665-46be-8b81-03ee729cbdd9", "symbol": "5UL", "name": "Atlantic Navigation Holdings (Singapore) Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.819, "architecture_energy": 17.542, "architecture_maturity": 28.796, "architecture_confidence": 71.344, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.01, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 12.58, "deceleration": 40.58, "rotation_down": 33.65, "downward_expansion": 60.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1138, 0.113491, 0.114343, 0.115839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.115, "trend_reference": 0.119, "distance_from_trend": -0.033613, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.058252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.974176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.124115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101562, "excess_performance": -0.256398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033613, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.974176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61100, "relative_activity": 0.217117, "balance": 0.833778, "dry_up": 0.458664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053512, "annualized_volatility": 0.277899, "from_high_reference": -0.228188, "from_low_reference": 1.273806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.119, "fair_value_reference": 0.058252, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003122, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.20246, "worst_return": -0.036335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.124393, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097699, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187548, "worst_return": 0.061237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.368256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44899, "worst_return": 0.287522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07694, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.206337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 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0.117433, "fair_value": 0.055627, "relative_strength": 7.241154, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.09184, "energy": 22.301317, "activity_lines": [ 0.114333, 0.114691, 0.115805, 0.117542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.11, "volume": 108500, "typical_volume": 7079320.0, "trend": 0.1178, "fair_value": 0.056138, "relative_strength": -4.227101, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.796768, "energy": 30.523727, "activity_lines": [ 0.1132, 0.113618, 0.115081, 0.117062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.11, "volume": 163200, "typical_volume": 7032280.0, "trend": 0.118, "fair_value": 0.056642, "relative_strength": -5.758918, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.271873, "energy": 33.310608, "activity_lines": [ 0.1122, 0.112764, 0.114467, 0.116559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.114, "volume": 90500, "typical_volume": 366895.0, "trend": 0.118367, "fair_value": 0.057176, "relative_strength": -4.600521, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.235537, "energy": 27.875615, "activity_lines": [ 0.112533, 0.112873, 0.114348, 0.116301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.115, "volume": 201500, "typical_volume": 309020.0, "trend": 0.1188, "fair_value": 0.057716, "relative_strength": -5.291826, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.076096, "energy": 23.609681, "activity_lines": [ 0.1132, 0.113182, 0.114352, 0.116084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.115, "volume": 61100, "typical_volume": 281415.0, "trend": 0.119, "fair_value": 0.058252, "relative_strength": -7.124115, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.818574, "energy": 17.541611, "activity_lines": [ 0.1138, 0.113491, 0.114343, 0.115839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }