{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0653a3a8-5f14-41cf-a7ad-0735543f147a", "symbol": "NEXA", "name": "Nexa Resources SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.387, "architecture_energy": 10.746, "architecture_maturity": 33.667, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.08, "rotation_up": 29.83, "upward_expansion": 43.98, "deceleration": 72.74, "rotation_down": 32.98, "downward_expansion": 35.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.258471, 13.263002, 13.606806, 13.314137 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.1, "trend_reference": 12.957814, "distance_from_trend": 0.088146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.641745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.845128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.770689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138015, "excess_performance": 0.01239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.845128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.257707, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.21666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4444087, "relative_activity": 0.899527, "balance": 2.21666, "dry_up": 0.613635, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165488, "annualized_volatility": 0.851363, "from_high_reference": -0.165187, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.957814, "fair_value_reference": 7.641745, "structural_low": 8.8601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.068116, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.02583, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.209283, "worst_return": -0.138333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.16981, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.071373, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.253881, "worst_return": -0.180046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.177133, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35436, "worst_return": -9.5e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.797629, "energy": 6.746996, "activity_lines": [ 13.15287, 13.458288, 13.597626, 13.211477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.733867, "volume": 2162651, "typical_volume": 4908061.7, "trend": 12.689481, "fair_value": 7.533194, "relative_strength": 22.120081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.838571, "energy": 8.465314, "activity_lines": [ 12.959456, 13.26789, 13.562563, 13.221511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.85, "volume": 2506061, "typical_volume": 4876740.35, "trend": 12.824814, "fair_value": 7.584217, "relative_strength": 20.322309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.064044, "energy": 8.392726, "activity_lines": [ 12.905161, 13.137082, 13.529684, 13.231867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 4444087, "typical_volume": 4940472.0, "trend": 12.957814, "fair_value": 7.641745, "relative_strength": 25.770689, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.386755, "energy": 10.746178, "activity_lines": [ 13.258471, 13.263002, 13.606806, 13.314137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }