{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0656fe36-4fac-49c4-b4bd-0f428aded686", "symbol": "LAC", "name": "Lithium Americas Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.88, "architecture_energy": 87.371, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.799, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.19, "rotation_up": 8.53, "upward_expansion": 21.93, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 80.1, "downward_expansion": 97.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.230667, 4.659273, 5.456, 5.716 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 6.124667, "distance_from_trend": -0.266899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.85953, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.508686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295133, "excess_performance": -0.415555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.528836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.522572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3397500, "relative_activity": 0.638678, "balance": 0.48611, "dry_up": 0.81278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135857, "annualized_volatility": 0.662452, "from_high_reference": -0.695593, "from_low_reference": 0.213514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.124667, "fair_value_reference": 5.85953, "structural_low": 3.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002717, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.026245, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.297456, "worst_return": -0.165533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.201566, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.084969, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.697436, "worst_return": 0.04, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.805333, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.539811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.805333, "worst_return": 1.805333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 6.309333, "fair_value": 5.881429, "relative_strength": -43.960987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.355712, "energy": 91.389672, "activity_lines": [ 4.458667, 5.115636, 5.77519, 5.976258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.01, "volume": 5158100, "typical_volume": 5542825.0, "trend": 6.224667, "fair_value": 5.868784, "relative_strength": -43.362532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.374427, "energy": 91.253891, "activity_lines": [ 4.218667, 4.818727, 5.587905, 5.827914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 3397500, "typical_volume": 5319585.0, "trend": 6.124667, "fair_value": 5.85953, "relative_strength": -38.508686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.880334, "energy": 87.371083, "activity_lines": [ 4.230667, 4.659273, 5.456, 5.716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }