{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06587cae-9bdd-4b13-a1c5-19b99480a0c9", "symbol": "TBFG", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS THE BRINSMERE FUND GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.237, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.954, "architecture_energy": 44.351, "architecture_maturity": 38.435, "architecture_confidence": 51.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.27, "rotation_up": 41.98, "upward_expansion": 74.65, "deceleration": 72.45, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 5.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.568933, 32.518015, 32.332553, 31.950135 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.1013, "trend_reference": 31.524761, "distance_from_trend": 0.05001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.68643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195578, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.281174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066037, "excess_performance": -0.059588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.37593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11124, "relative_activity": 0.429046, "balance": 3.37593, "dry_up": 0.381933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017053, "annualized_volatility": 0.114468, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.193834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.524761, "fair_value_reference": 27.68643, "structural_low": 29.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.074366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -9.1e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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25171.1, "trend": 31.290415, "fair_value": 27.5751, "relative_strength": -2.180929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.914292, "energy": 38.616936, "activity_lines": [ 32.443866, 32.448427, 32.072964, 31.720792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.2033, "volume": 26538, "typical_volume": 26098.25, "trend": 31.360658, "fair_value": 27.610162, "relative_strength": -1.636721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.948845, "energy": 33.221294, "activity_lines": [ 32.340693, 32.412301, 32.13625, 31.779688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.339, "volume": 1530, "typical_volume": 25479.3, "trend": 31.437719, "fair_value": 27.645717, "relative_strength": -2.246181, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.154275, "energy": 28.265852, "activity_lines": [ 32.326707, 32.396196, 32.203905, 31.842807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.1013, "volume": 11124, "typical_volume": 25927.3, "trend": 31.524761, "fair_value": 27.68643, "relative_strength": -3.281174, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.954434, "energy": 44.351176, "activity_lines": [ 32.568933, 32.518015, 32.332553, 31.950135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }