{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0660346f-ef45-4a42-b928-c91235ffc1b1",
    "symbol": "IUS4",
    "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Dist)",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 60.098,
    "architecture_energy": 34.942,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.642,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.091,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.05,
        "rotation_up": 35.14,
        "upward_expansion": 59.86,
        "deceleration": 88.27,
        "rotation_down": 27.47,
        "downward_expansion": 21.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        52.255847,
        52.382439,
        51.730914,
        50.93671
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 53.43,
    "trend_reference": 49.90981,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.070531,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 40.674731,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313592,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.988505,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.11825,
    "excess_performance": 0.053611,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070531,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054949,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.313592,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02725,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039885,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075195,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11825,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.078818,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16352,
      "relative_activity": 0.949037,
      "balance": 1.078818,
      "dry_up": 1.208655,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023812,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.182236,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007786,
      "from_low_reference": 0.258954
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 49.90981,
      "fair_value_reference": 40.674731,
      "structural_low": 45.48,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.019235,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 4.8e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.074445,
        "worst_return": -0.023644,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.030046,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000797,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.153194,
        "worst_return": -0.056187,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.0334,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029476,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.168308,
        "worst_return": -0.119606,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.068725,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.115341,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.121527,
        "worst_return": -0.126472,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035161,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022502,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.021861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.025163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.091957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000247,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.097166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.076254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.00163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.086263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.00391,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 13380.1,
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "fair_value": 38.954859,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "relative_strength": 14.535985,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 35214.95,
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        "energy": 66.310036,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 51.220001,
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        "typical_volume": 32723.85,
        "trend": 47.310167,
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        "relative_strength": 8.594398,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 51.43,
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        "fair_value": 39.596679,
        "relative_strength": 10.090014,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 20565,
        "typical_volume": 29614.65,
        "trend": 47.806333,
        "fair_value": 39.706108,
        "relative_strength": 9.900209,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 11.069885,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 12.493519,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.270726,
        "energy": 82.60042,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 53.61158,
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        "typical_volume": 21083.45,
        "trend": 48.697219,
        "fair_value": 40.085299,
        "relative_strength": 8.408655,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 25592,
        "typical_volume": 21851.9,
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        "fair_value": 40.212084,
        "relative_strength": 9.653619,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.104741,
        "energy": 84.716211,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 51.23,
        "volume": 11716,
        "typical_volume": 21444.65,
        "trend": 49.218143,
        "fair_value": 40.325602,
        "relative_strength": 6.59878,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.889805,
        "energy": 55.337404,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.515705,
          52.270037,
          51.166619,
          50.39721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 51.950001,
        "volume": 36435,
        "typical_volume": 18714.7,
        "trend": 49.46381,
        "fair_value": 40.435906,
        "relative_strength": 6.535674,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.925398,
        "energy": 43.416546,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.257086,
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          51.342765,
          50.573459
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.349998,
        "volume": 18798,
        "typical_volume": 17998.1,
        "trend": 49.68581,
        "fair_value": 40.549268,
        "relative_strength": 2.888316,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.213942,
        "energy": 27.034252,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.8538,
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          51.447054,
          50.695149
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.43,
        "volume": 16352,
        "typical_volume": 17230.1,
        "trend": 49.90981,
        "fair_value": 40.674731,
        "relative_strength": 3.988505,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.098305,
        "energy": 34.942225,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.382439,
          51.730914,
          50.93671
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}