{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0661e065-1e78-4d6a-9a14-06a9d3db6168", "symbol": "SAWD", "name": "iShares MSCI World Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.691, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.009, "architecture_energy": 66.111, "architecture_maturity": 84.357, "architecture_confidence": 65.154, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 53.57, "upward_expansion": 82.45, "deceleration": 71.26, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 11.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.851333, 11.8016, 11.623286, 11.369355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.112, "trend_reference": 11.077467, "distance_from_trend": 0.093391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.36791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.051319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149582, "excess_performance": -0.021309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093391, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.047078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 942082, "relative_activity": 1.11914, "balance": 4.047078, "dry_up": 0.894024, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018951, "annualized_volatility": 0.118026, "from_high_reference": -0.001319, "from_low_reference": 0.243915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.077467, "fair_value_reference": 9.36791, "structural_low": 9.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.011302, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.004229, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.068098, "worst_return": -0.087946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.044266, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.008956, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.107627, "worst_return": -0.159919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017633, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.156657, "worst_return": -0.151216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -2.654543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.990389, "energy": 63.633313, "activity_lines": [ 11.772667, 11.734618, 11.497057, 11.257144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.654, "volume": 449462, "typical_volume": 822466.95, "trend": 11.032733, "fair_value": 9.335994, "relative_strength": -4.025297, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.280595, "energy": 56.474171, "activity_lines": [ 11.7364, 11.727382, 11.541305, 11.299725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.112, "volume": 942082, "typical_volume": 841791.1, "trend": 11.077467, "fair_value": 9.36791, "relative_strength": -3.051319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.008885, "energy": 66.110614, "activity_lines": [ 11.851333, 11.8016, 11.623286, 11.369355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }