{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06670472-0fbd-4001-9924-b0feb0cfadaf", "symbol": "GINNIFILA", "name": "Ginni Filaments Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.803, "architecture_energy": 21.071, "architecture_maturity": 58.695, "architecture_confidence": 86.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.12, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 62.07, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 14.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.768, 47.779637, 46.186381, 44.402989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.57, "trend_reference": 42.265, "distance_from_trend": 0.078197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.700384, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.817394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103924, "excess_performance": 0.147634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078197, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056942, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068174, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103924, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116876, "relative_activity": 0.291449, "balance": 0.450072, "dry_up": 0.65498, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103442, "annualized_volatility": 0.40416, "from_high_reference": -0.212273, "from_low_reference": 0.446667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.265, "fair_value_reference": 35.700384, "structural_low": 31.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.046328, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.005176, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.212598, "worst_return": -0.189959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028681, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050516, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.541339, "worst_return": -0.108249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016399, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.055918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.497132, "worst_return": -0.143277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065181, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.15, "volume": 168432, "typical_volume": 294815.25, "trend": 25.085, "fair_value": 30.583654, "relative_strength": -15.613165, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"volume": 267107, "typical_volume": 473223.9, "trend": 41.965667, "fair_value": 35.48532, "relative_strength": 13.498659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.613852, "energy": 65.067307, "activity_lines": [ 49.774, 48.214727, 45.827524, 43.942903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.630001, "volume": 397910, "typical_volume": 429723.2, "trend": 42.103, "fair_value": 35.587115, "relative_strength": 7.297353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.276021, "energy": 34.238018, "activity_lines": [ 48.163334, 48.008909, 46.032191, 44.179312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.57, "volume": 116876, "typical_volume": 401017.15, "trend": 42.265, "fair_value": 35.700384, "relative_strength": 6.817394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.803111, "energy": 21.070708, "activity_lines": [ 46.768, 47.779637, 46.186381, 44.402989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }