{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0668acd7-1115-4c27-87d4-6d0b9e802064", "symbol": "300748", "name": "JL Mag Rare-Earth Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.815, "architecture_energy": 73.42, "architecture_maturity": 49.916, "architecture_confidence": 84.429, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 11.92, "upward_expansion": 19.19, "deceleration": 34.39, "rotation_down": 72.67, "downward_expansion": 90.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.226667, 27.898546, 29.867755, 30.987283 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.860001, "trend_reference": 32.735811, "distance_from_trend": -0.148944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.689428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227885, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.094041, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255626, "excess_performance": -0.263025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227885, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255626, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165366227, "relative_activity": 1.176542, "balance": 0.85012, "dry_up": 0.951162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126485, "annualized_volatility": 0.571811, "from_high_reference": -0.410378, "from_low_reference": 0.177515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.735811, "fair_value_reference": 22.689428, "structural_low": 23.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.016368, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.008032, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.347536, "worst_return": -0.194214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063995, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.027684, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.459078, "worst_return": -0.198706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056975, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.093795, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.226169, "worst_return": -0.087606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.16, "volume": 125826706, "typical_volume": 144676573.15, "trend": 33.522397, "fair_value": 22.53048, "relative_strength": -25.699133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.597325, "energy": 63.345362, "activity_lines": [ 29.125334, 30.386, 31.469792, 32.406345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.23, "volume": 123277934, "typical_volume": 139607463.15, "trend": 33.225633, "fair_value": 22.57051, "relative_strength": -28.428068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.454225, "energy": 75.569041, "activity_lines": [ 27.095334, 29.065091, 30.727583, 31.806835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6, "volume": 120282620, "typical_volume": 138182368.0, "trend": 32.937422, "fair_value": 22.621958, "relative_strength": -22.895048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.895096, "energy": 78.754571, "activity_lines": [ 26.135333, 28.196909, 30.170741, 31.314859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.860001, "volume": 165366227, "typical_volume": 140552744.55, "trend": 32.735811, "fair_value": 22.689428, "relative_strength": -20.094041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.814727, "energy": 73.420165, "activity_lines": [ 26.226667, 27.898546, 29.867755, 30.987283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }