{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06709fc2-5ee3-477f-b06f-6408f33a0cb9", "symbol": "CHT", "name": "Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.452, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.588, "architecture_energy": 8.679, "architecture_maturity": 13.328, "architecture_confidence": 41.526, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.34, "rotation_up": 23.41, "upward_expansion": 13.58, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 36.42, "downward_expansion": 36.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.507333, 42.602257, 42.904642, 42.884593 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.52, "trend_reference": 42.815969, "distance_from_trend": -0.006913, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.996275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.704993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022853, "excess_performance": -0.102772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 932671, "relative_activity": 1.204693, "balance": 0.703134, "dry_up": 1.241826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032278, "annualized_volatility": 0.119457, "from_high_reference": -0.071413, "from_low_reference": 0.082485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.815969, "fair_value_reference": 38.996275, "structural_low": 39.28, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015583, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.003533, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.0455, "worst_return": -0.040831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051522, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.018487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068598, "worst_return": -0.151624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060065, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.053045, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.263848, "worst_return": -0.126313, 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-12.062829, "energy": 23.62369, "activity_lines": [ 42.328664, 42.816934, 42.990296, 42.911103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.75, "volume": 859282, "typical_volume": 825927.15, "trend": 42.766636, "fair_value": 38.888635, "relative_strength": -7.978578, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.181734, "energy": 24.085056, "activity_lines": [ 42.378683, 42.754769, 42.972824, 42.912481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.61, "volume": 746434, "typical_volume": 819053.6, "trend": 42.795636, "fair_value": 38.944528, "relative_strength": -8.880787, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.673009, "energy": 22.751603, "activity_lines": [ 42.437694, 42.676968, 42.942828, 42.902376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.52, "volume": 932671, "typical_volume": 774198.15, "trend": 42.815969, "fair_value": 38.996275, "relative_strength": -11.704993, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.587837, "energy": 8.679499, "activity_lines": [ 42.507333, 42.602257, 42.904642, 42.884593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }