{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0671cd96-2c6a-4372-a3be-f5d11a9bf5ab", "symbol": "ORV", "name": "Orvana Minerals Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.547, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.116, "architecture_energy": 30.275, "architecture_maturity": 17.511, "architecture_confidence": 64.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 54.24, "upward_expansion": 51.39, "deceleration": 29.7, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 14.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.961333, 1.864909, 1.854143, 1.841097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 1.853333, "distance_from_trend": 0.143885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.737436, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.874826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.241732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.164835, "excess_performance": 0.044414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.874826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182417, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1249100, "relative_activity": 1.487723, "balance": 1.385116, "dry_up": 0.957087, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150943, "annualized_volatility": 0.910929, "from_high_reference": -0.165354, "from_low_reference": 3.416667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.853333, "fair_value_reference": 0.737436, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.050125, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.021551, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.245902, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028078, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.15, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.087026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.963636, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.702703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.309091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.444444, 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1.795048, 1.825527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.71, "volume": 121800, "typical_volume": 896335.0, "trend": 1.875, "fair_value": 0.680513, "relative_strength": 5.243627, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.046247, "energy": 54.548399, "activity_lines": [ 1.633333, 1.743636, 1.786476, 1.814882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.06, "volume": 1152400, "typical_volume": 921230.0, "trend": 1.878, "fair_value": 0.692692, "relative_strength": 24.65823, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.603255, "energy": 18.059497, "activity_lines": [ 1.772667, 1.789091, 1.811143, 1.826817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.77, "volume": 883800, "typical_volume": 881880.0, "trend": 1.866667, "fair_value": 0.702885, "relative_strength": 5.989909, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.431953, "energy": 13.536348, "activity_lines": [ 1.792, 1.774909, 1.806381, 1.819849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.9, "volume": 697400, "typical_volume": 858285.0, "trend": 1.854333, "fair_value": 0.71391, "relative_strength": 11.920266, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.104325, "energy": 15.624513, "activity_lines": [ 1.846667, 1.786182, 1.815952, 1.822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 384000, "typical_volume": 836420.0, "trend": 1.849667, "fair_value": 0.725, "relative_strength": 9.756179, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.556181, "energy": 12.749694, "activity_lines": [ 1.876, 1.802182, 1.82381, 1.823656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 1249100, "typical_volume": 839605.0, "trend": 1.853333, "fair_value": 0.737436, "relative_strength": 18.241732, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.115529, "energy": 30.275475, "activity_lines": [ 1.961333, 1.864909, 1.854143, 1.841097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }