{ "ticker": { "uuid": "067772a9-9ac9-49a0-b13c-5a19ee0009b3", "symbol": "ULE", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA EURO", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.775, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.99, "architecture_energy": 28.05, "architecture_maturity": 58.923, "architecture_confidence": 85.741, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.29, "rotation_up": 26.32, "upward_expansion": 15.75, "deceleration": 46.46, "rotation_down": 35.4, "downward_expansion": 65.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.492693, 12.446995, 12.57805, 12.669074 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.6516, "trend_reference": 12.80889, "distance_from_trend": -0.01228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.983839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.797349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049109, "excess_performance": -0.174734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10132, "relative_activity": 0.417965, "balance": 0.939997, "dry_up": 0.55321, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018229, "annualized_volatility": 0.120736, "from_high_reference": -0.089158, "from_low_reference": 0.037016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.80889, "fair_value_reference": 11.983839, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001914, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.010824, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.092504, "worst_return": -0.077955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.044669, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033929, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.180085, "worst_return": -0.131338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043059, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051978, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147571, "worst_return": -0.211916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 13661, "typical_volume": 31741.4, "trend": 12.891507, "fair_value": 11.967165, "relative_strength": -14.39089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.200406, "energy": 80.136005, "activity_lines": [ 12.371687, 12.502031, 12.670191, 12.769574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.3874, "volume": 18961, "typical_volume": 30834.7, "trend": 12.868023, "fair_value": 11.969637, "relative_strength": -12.33979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.310198, "energy": 75.603187, "activity_lines": [ 12.36128, 12.457853, 12.635559, 12.737051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.2455, "volume": 5522, "typical_volume": 27728.6, "trend": 12.834883, "fair_value": 11.9723, "relative_strength": -12.435211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.774505, "energy": 72.519009, "activity_lines": [ 12.321967, 12.401993, 12.591652, 12.696888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.57, "volume": 19027, "typical_volume": 26465.0, "trend": 12.817837, "fair_value": 11.977387, "relative_strength": -10.715346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.357651, "energy": 44.235196, "activity_lines": [ 12.4034, 12.415298, 12.58137, 12.679799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.6516, "volume": 10132, "typical_volume": 24241.25, "trend": 12.80889, "fair_value": 11.983839, "relative_strength": -12.797349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.990038, "energy": 28.049617, "activity_lines": [ 12.492693, 12.446995, 12.57805, 12.669074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }