{ "ticker": { "uuid": "067b12b7-9e9f-40b6-ba19-b5f7806c3c7f", "symbol": "XSDX", "name": "Xtrackers ShortDAX Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.761, "architecture_energy": 78.929, "architecture_maturity": 27.915, "architecture_confidence": 91.603, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 38.62, "rotation_down": 68.93, "downward_expansion": 90.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 774.796667, 782.832727, 796.25762, 807.712473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 755.5, "trend_reference": 815.82, "distance_from_trend": -0.073938, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 934.0286, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.777838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069982, "excess_performance": -0.121217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.590081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53607, "relative_activity": 0.627506, "balance": 0.590081, "dry_up": 0.50505, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025333, "annualized_volatility": 0.182304, "from_high_reference": -0.201197, "from_low_reference": 0.00041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 815.82, "fair_value_reference": 934.0286, "structural_low": 755.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.003273, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": 0.002505, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.107931, "worst_return": -0.064869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006095, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.027236, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.085086, "worst_return": -0.114712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051351, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.09678, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.201473, "worst_return": -0.159302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-60.037128, "energy": 65.02396, "activity_lines": [ 790.22, 796.168182, 810.304762, 816.452688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 789.45, "volume": 49589, "typical_volume": 109699.55, "trend": 818.545, "fair_value": 938.623793, "relative_strength": -11.517776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.574131, "energy": 66.583528, "activity_lines": [ 789.093333, 793.872727, 806.855953, 814.49785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 774.95, "volume": 26293, "typical_volume": 99747.3, "trend": 817.078333, "fair_value": 936.416421, "relative_strength": -13.760336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.992298, "energy": 61.823247, "activity_lines": [ 784.013333, 789.889091, 802.296429, 811.685269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 755.5, "volume": 53607, "typical_volume": 85428.7, "trend": 815.82, "fair_value": 934.0286, "relative_strength": -15.777838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.760877, "energy": 78.929475, "activity_lines": [ 774.796667, 782.832727, 796.25762, 807.712473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }