{ "ticker": { "uuid": "067e7168-cebe-45f9-8666-2b4a34da7f50", "symbol": "GS71", "name": "GSK plc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.065, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.881, "architecture_energy": 13.391, "architecture_maturity": 20.575, "architecture_confidence": 58.791, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.84, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 18.46, "deceleration": 50.68, "rotation_down": 40.33, "downward_expansion": 61.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.691334, 22.758546, 22.640596, 22.810797 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.860001, "trend_reference": 22.894801, "distance_from_trend": -0.00152, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.094186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263389, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.109968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082961, "excess_performance": -0.147601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035302, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.548059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169554, "relative_activity": 0.690096, "balance": 1.548059, "dry_up": 0.984372, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042179, "annualized_volatility": 0.222793, "from_high_reference": -0.11243, "from_low_reference": 0.453717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.894801, "fair_value_reference": 18.094186, "structural_low": 20.895166, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018026, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.013982, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.098241, "worst_return": -0.040008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04289, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013723, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202063, "worst_return": -0.027037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029848, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235385, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.219418, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092239, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030194, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.493429, "volume": 302845, "typical_volume": 218704.85, "trend": 14.622435, "fair_value": 14.69297, "relative_strength": -5.132248, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.30929, "energy": 19.246872, "activity_lines": [ 22.974667, 22.661149, 22.720953, 22.838826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.59, "volume": 279825, "typical_volume": 254135.55, "trend": 22.716326, "fair_value": 17.934809, "relative_strength": 6.248693, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.582185, "energy": 13.958096, "activity_lines": [ 22.871333, 22.709091, 22.685233, 22.835225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.530001, "volume": 238937, "typical_volume": 254110.0, "trend": 22.78517, "fair_value": 17.985451, "relative_strength": 4.2349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.183516, "energy": 8.792911, "activity_lines": [ 22.775334, 22.719818, 22.654532, 22.823204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.58, "volume": 279110, "typical_volume": 256167.7, "trend": 22.847142, "fair_value": 18.039517, "relative_strength": 1.816282, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.326909, "energy": 13.004376, "activity_lines": [ 22.673334, 22.717818, 22.632478, 22.809967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.860001, "volume": 169554, "typical_volume": 245696.2, "trend": 22.894801, "fair_value": 18.094186, "relative_strength": -0.109968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.880867, "energy": 13.390524, "activity_lines": [ 22.691334, 22.758546, 22.640596, 22.810797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }