{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0685dba4-55ee-4fe8-a61e-f522af0778d5", "symbol": "002613", "name": "Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.752, "architecture_energy": 72.061, "architecture_maturity": 17.761, "architecture_confidence": 79.882, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.41, "rotation_up": 8.88, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 72.69, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.206, 3.463818, 3.782857, 3.855032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.915667, "distance_from_trend": -0.147016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.963445, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.332761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147959, "excess_performance": -0.155359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157299, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.698239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135103920, "relative_activity": 0.629101, "balance": 1.698239, "dry_up": 0.675348, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153386, "annualized_volatility": 0.549995, "from_high_reference": -0.366224, "from_low_reference": 0.151724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.915667, "fair_value_reference": 3.963445, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.024554, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.020733, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.313725, "worst_return": -0.128155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034722, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.005502, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.297298, "worst_return": -0.109726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046097, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003174, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.876106, "worst_return": -0.191375, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.0, "volume": 152058374, "typical_volume": 209588955.95, "trend": 3.947667, "fair_value": 3.979765, "relative_strength": -25.114421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.178971, "energy": 77.17155, "activity_lines": [ 3.261333, 3.705091, 3.909381, 3.941226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 129429898, "typical_volume": 212184877.85, "trend": 3.928333, "fair_value": 3.971313, "relative_strength": -18.225851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.602323, "energy": 75.352863, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.562909, 3.837333, 3.892989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 135103920, "typical_volume": 214757248.65, "trend": 3.915667, "fair_value": 3.963445, "relative_strength": -18.332761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.751723, "energy": 72.061468, "activity_lines": [ 3.206, 3.463818, 3.782857, 3.855032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }