{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0688a0b7-c9b0-481e-8296-63284b220335", "symbol": "600630", "name": "Shanghai Dragon Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.512, "architecture_energy": 79.885, "architecture_maturity": 21.545, "architecture_confidence": 84.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.5, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 21.13, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 76.22, "downward_expansion": 92.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.432, 7.211091, 7.674381, 7.884172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.63, "trend_reference": 8.229, "distance_from_trend": -0.194313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.83501, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.865966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278564, "excess_performance": -0.23536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65831623, "relative_activity": 1.280478, "balance": 0.43242, "dry_up": 1.557463, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135283, "annualized_volatility": 0.588119, "from_high_reference": -0.412234, "from_low_reference": 0.129472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.229, "fair_value_reference": 8.83501, "structural_low": 5.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.022401, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.014857, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.222376, "worst_return": -0.109261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076376, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.046396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.322667, "worst_return": -0.218364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033844, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.006213, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.470588, "worst_return": -0.012704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.443246, "energy": 49.702666, "activity_lines": [ 7.744, 8.123273, 8.157952, 8.281957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.02, "volume": 77614422, "typical_volume": 47627231.75, "trend": 8.402333, "fair_value": 8.824008, "relative_strength": -28.554425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.76073, "energy": 73.353122, "activity_lines": [ 7.012667, 7.724364, 7.953571, 8.121032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.41, "volume": 66364400, "typical_volume": 49593202.4, "trend": 8.309, "fair_value": 8.829346, "relative_strength": -23.80607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.948158, "energy": 77.022603, "activity_lines": [ 6.574667, 7.432727, 7.798857, 7.992495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.63, "volume": 65831623, "typical_volume": 51411751.6, "trend": 8.229, "fair_value": 8.83501, "relative_strength": -22.865966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.511675, "energy": 79.884969, "activity_lines": [ 6.432, 7.211091, 7.674381, 7.884172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }