{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "068a4149-9cc4-45f1-bcb3-bd8fc5c97c86",
    "symbol": "TQ5",
    "name": "Frasers Property Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 77.581,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -32.293,
    "architecture_energy": 51.88,
    "architecture_maturity": 5.863,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.495,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.44,
        "rotation_up": 17.1,
        "upward_expansion": 19.47,
        "deceleration": 43.65,
        "rotation_down": 66.13,
        "downward_expansion": 61.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.048667,
        1.061091,
        1.080024,
        1.074337
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 1.05,
    "trend_reference": 1.075038,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.02329,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.868026,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209641,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -15.942324,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.027778,
    "excess_performance": -0.182613,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02329,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007143,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.209641,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.112046,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.159423,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.18449,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027778,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.613528,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 622100,
      "relative_activity": 0.399812,
      "balance": 2.613528,
      "dry_up": 0.496664,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035165,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.209565,
      "from_high_reference": -0.125,
      "from_low_reference": 0.160542
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.075038,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.868026,
      "structural_low": 0.95,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.031182,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000125,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.097436,
        "worst_return": -0.079754,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.030676,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01102,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.117949,
        "worst_return": 0.018867,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.206757,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.092754,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.312884,
        "worst_return": 0.100629,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.070096,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.095655,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.070096,
        "worst_return": 0.070096,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.079754,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041666,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.074468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002184,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.070755,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.097436,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034188,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045872,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009615,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.715871,
        "volume": 387700,
        "typical_volume": 348800.0,
        "trend": 0.76185,
        "fair_value": 0.896844,
        "relative_strength": -6.43688,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 66.555453,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-24",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "trend": 1.042858,
        "fair_value": 0.832659,
        "relative_strength": -1.9731,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -4.247483,
        "energy": 13.166866,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 2344815.0,
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        "relative_strength": 8.500131,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 2318000.0,
        "trend": 1.053125,
        "fair_value": 0.837673,
        "relative_strength": 5.688324,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.760979,
        "energy": 46.352667,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.108,
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          1.05993,
          1.060291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 1219800,
        "typical_volume": 2295025.0,
        "trend": 1.055796,
        "fair_value": 0.839836,
        "relative_strength": 2.506663,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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        "direction": 48.808685,
        "energy": 47.343587,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 3494900,
        "typical_volume": 2437305.0,
        "trend": 1.060096,
        "fair_value": 0.842211,
        "relative_strength": 2.754968,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "direction": 62.530248,
        "energy": 65.333963,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 2457415.0,
        "trend": 1.063433,
        "fair_value": 0.844557,
        "relative_strength": 0.978539,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.054171,
        "energy": 60.125655,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 1418300,
        "typical_volume": 2450950.0,
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        "relative_strength": 1.372703,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 59.499442,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 1.1,
        "volume": 47200,
        "typical_volume": 2330095.0,
        "trend": 1.071675,
        "fair_value": 0.849283,
        "relative_strength": -1.681261,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 55.041679,
        "energy": 36.266838,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 1.1,
        "volume": 311500,
        "typical_volume": 2237665.0,
        "trend": 1.074654,
        "fair_value": 0.851465,
        "relative_strength": -1.312856,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 41.438304,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 1943150.0,
        "trend": 1.077942,
        "fair_value": 0.853612,
        "relative_strength": -5.38754,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 18.578236,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 312300,
        "typical_volume": 1815745.0,
        "trend": 1.080908,
        "fair_value": 0.855814,
        "relative_strength": -5.350237,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.979283,
        "energy": 18.621921,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.096,
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          1.08325
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.07,
        "volume": 324900,
        "typical_volume": 1692490.0,
        "trend": 1.081283,
        "fair_value": 0.857888,
        "relative_strength": -7.94313,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.832817,
        "energy": 15.918299,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.085333,
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          1.082546
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.08,
        "volume": 1242300,
        "typical_volume": 1716300.0,
        "trend": 1.081029,
        "fair_value": 0.860027,
        "relative_strength": -10.811729,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.86577,
        "energy": 16.148446,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.082,
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          1.082463
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.06,
        "volume": 950500,
        "typical_volume": 1653820.0,
        "trend": 1.080108,
        "fair_value": 0.862121,
        "relative_strength": -12.949055,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.807809,
        "energy": 17.295953,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.073333,
          1.086,
          1.08819,
          1.081106
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.04,
        "volume": 600800,
        "typical_volume": 1572215.0,
        "trend": 1.0782,
        "fair_value": 0.864059,
        "relative_strength": -15.588302,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.516494,
        "energy": 35.556323,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.060667,
          1.075455,
          1.085381,
          1.078519
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.04,
        "volume": 917800,
        "typical_volume": 1568550.0,
        "trend": 1.076612,
        "fair_value": 0.865996,
        "relative_strength": -15.948378,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.440245,
        "energy": 49.498821,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.051333,
          1.066545,
          1.082357,
          1.076054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.05,
        "volume": 622100,
        "typical_volume": 1555980.0,
        "trend": 1.075038,
        "fair_value": 0.868026,
        "relative_strength": -15.942324,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.292629,
        "energy": 51.8799,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.048667,
          1.061091,
          1.080024,
          1.074337
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}