{ "ticker": { "uuid": "068c84e7-447b-44a0-83d4-2a76e52059e7", "symbol": "SDSI", "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY SHORT DURATION STRATEGIC INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.703, "architecture_energy": 16.833, "architecture_maturity": 24.558, "architecture_confidence": 77.318, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.08, "rotation_up": 32.52, "upward_expansion": 56.86, "deceleration": 84.32, "rotation_down": 25.95, "downward_expansion": 16.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.020013, 51.015137, 51.032485, 50.99527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 51.155, "trend_reference": 50.948077, "distance_from_trend": 0.004061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.853541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.753622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004778, "excess_performance": -0.182676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.880335, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 412162, "relative_activity": 3.131981, "balance": 1.880335, "dry_up": 1.744856, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003858, "annualized_volatility": 0.020473, "from_high_reference": -0.001984, "from_low_reference": 0.035595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.948077, "fair_value_reference": 47.853541, "structural_low": 50.398609, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002322, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.012765, "worst_return": -0.005456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150986, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.013577, "worst_return": 0.013535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025172, "worst_return": 0.025172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 111292.15, "trend": 50.908933, "fair_value": 47.708645, "relative_strength": -9.453322, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.065225, "energy": 13.865283, "activity_lines": [ 51.004476, 51.029969, 51.01971, 50.978529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.86687, "volume": 91452, "typical_volume": 111050.35, "trend": 50.918444, "fair_value": 47.756631, "relative_strength": -7.95622, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.562778, "energy": 11.037166, "activity_lines": [ 50.951297, 50.997459, 51.011216, 50.975815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.996341, "volume": 285536, "typical_volume": 114750.25, "trend": 50.931352, "fair_value": 47.804272, "relative_strength": -7.890691, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.244858, "energy": 13.087051, "activity_lines": [ 50.954226, 50.991047, 51.015201, 50.980841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.155, "volume": 412162, "typical_volume": 131597.85, "trend": 50.948077, "fair_value": 47.853541, "relative_strength": -11.753622, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.703349, "energy": 16.833009, "activity_lines": [ 51.020013, 51.015137, 51.032485, 50.99527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }